Expansion offers many benefits--at least in theory. A marketplace of 350 million people will swell to over half a billion. Enhanced capital resources, additional natural resources and a wider platform of commercial opportunity will be on offer.

Beyond theory lies reality. What sort of a union can exist and grow without a fundamental constitution of political ground rules? How can the benefits be realized if unanimity among member states remains the decision requirement on important issues, particularly now with more and additionally diverse sources of veto power? To the observer, this is a seemingly hideous magnification of the frustrations encountered within the United Nations Security Council. Even a leading European statesman has described the concept as a new political paradigm lying somewhere between the United States and the United Nations. Perhaps most strikingly, after decades of painful development, the European Union does not yet have an agreed statement of its mission and purposes.

But these are the cosmic issues. They will be resolved or not as Europeís political and cultural leaders choose, since the obstacles are in many ways self-imposed rather than forces of nature. The more challenging issues, the real forces of nature, are the human dimensions. They are numerous and difficult and, to this observer, apparently receiving inadequate recognition within the European Union community.

The most widely discussed human challenge is that of labor market mobility. The most industrialized states of northern Europe face a perverse combination of high unemployment and an aging population ñ conditions that would seemingly benefit from the labor pool of southern Europe and the soon to be admitted new members such as Turkey. Yet the welcome mat does not seem to be out. The protectionism of high wages and limited work weeks would be challenged. Dislocations, retraining and reployment of labor forces are never accomplished without conflict, and it seems unclear how ready Germany, France and its neighbors are to launch this phase of the growth of union. From the perspective of those in the labor force, the magnet field of opportunity will be a powerful stimulant, and one quite capable of generating interpersonal conflicts far beyond the theoretical horizons under discussion.

>From the perspective of citizens, the qualities of democracy are measured by the willingness and ability of governments to meet the needs and objectives of its people. On this scale, the expansion of the European Union introduces new and conflicting currents. The population of most current member states have more confidence in the democratic strength of their national governments than in those of the European Union. By contrast, the position is starkly reversed in nearly all of the applicant states, who wait expectantly and favorably for European membership. Is this a real difference in qualities of democracy between the more and the less developed industrial societies? Or is it a perception in the mode of "the grass is always greener"? Whatever the cause, expansion will increase the conflicting currents of statehood, and could produce new tensions and social discord. The prospects for union as a force for societal stability seem distant and uncertain.

And then there is the generation gap--a force certain to add to the tensions of enlargement. "First Generation Europe," a recent report by the World Economic Forum and Monday Morning on their Bridging Europe Youth Community project demonstrates the stark contrast between the younger generationís desire to become simultaneously Europeanists and nationalists, and the middle aged and above who strongly feel more nationalistic than European. Expansion of the Union will foster more such conflict, at least for the next 10 to 20 years.

What seems most remarkable in all this is not the commitment to expand before agreeing on a mission and Constitution to guide the resolution of these human issues. It is the apparent apathy of the population in most countries (member and applicant alike) to the opportunities and particularly to the challenges ahead. The leadership of Europe moves determinately toward union. As one statesman has said, "Europe is a work in progress on its way toward an uncertain destination." Yet the forces of nature within the half a billion people of the Union seem unaware of the consequences for their lives and living conditions.

The challenge of establishing a stable democratic union from disparate components is never easy. The Unites States is still, to some extent, a work in progress. But the United States had a relatively easy start, with components of union which had little history and few deeply vested interests. The European challenge is much greater. The early years of the expanded political union will not be easily or quietly transformed into a community of citizens.

(Richard H. Murray is Director of Legal and Regulatory Affairs of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu)