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HONG
KONG—There may be an end in sight
to the enormous financial crisis that has
gripped Japan for the last decade. Since
his election in April of this year, Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi has been aggressively
pushing for the reforms necessary to make
Japan’s economy strong again. But
progress has been slow, and with the current
global economic recession, revitalizing
Japan’s ailing economy will be a
monumental challenge.
Addressing
international business leaders at the World
Economic Forum (WEF) East Asia Economic Summit,
Heizo Takenaka, Minister for Economic and Fiscal
Policy of Japan, spoke passionately about the
new wave of reforms the Koizumi government
is in the process of implementing to stabilize
the Japanese economy.
“I want to congratulate the WEF on behalf
of all of the delegates here in this room,
for taking the initiative to invite to this
meeting probably the first politician in the
last decade in Japan who has had major, major
responsibilities, who can engage and will engage
in a frank, open, direct discussion on these
key economic issues,” said Kenneth S.
Courtis, Vice Chairman Asia of Goldman Sachs
in Japan.
Over the last
10 years, the Japanese government has attempted
various different economic policies
in hopes of stimulating growth, but to no avail. “Our
economy was not revitalized,” Takenaka
said. “We often use the term lost decade.
The average growth rate in the 1990s was a
little higher than one percent. This can be
compared with the growth rate in the 1980s,
higher than four percent.”
The failure of the Japanese economy to regain
the momentum of the 1980s is due to the inadequacy
of the traditional levels of economic policy
that were attempted by previous governments.
But since its formation in April of this year,
the Koizumi government has moved beyond these
traditional policies toward addressing and
implementing much needed economic and structural
reforms.
“At the beginning of the year we had
a very drastic administrative reform focusing
on the central ministry agency system,” Takenaka
said to participants at the World Economic
Forum East Asia Economic Summit 2001. “Before
that we had 22 government agencies, now these
22 ministries have been integrated into 13
ministries.”
The end result
of the administrative reform was the creation
of a new cabinet office consisting
of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
board, which Takenaka now heads. With a mandate
to assist and support the prime minister, Takenaka
said that Koizumi in effect has his own machine
to realize his policy. “In a sense, Koizumi
is a very lucky person—he is the very
first prime minister who can make use of this
machine system,” he said. “Through
lively discussion on this council, we are now
conducting a new type of reform policy.”
Takenaka said that the government was looking
at policy measures to strengthen the supply
side of their economy. Traditionally the Japanese
information technology industries and the automobile
industries have been characterized as productive,
efficient, and globally competitive. Other
sectors, namely the agricultural and banking
sectors, are characterized as low productivity,
government regulated sectors.
“But so far, under very strong influence
of competitive industries, the total economic
performance of Japan has been kept well. Domestic
transfer from the competitive to inefficient
sector also created equalization of people’s
income level,” he said.
However, competitiveness
in these sectors is now to declining, and
some companies have
began shifting their production basis overseas,
especially to China. Takenaka said that this
has brought about a loss in people’s
confidence for the future, and has in turn
weakened private consumption in general. The
solution to this problem would be, he said,
to strengthen the supply side of the economy.
As for the
total process of structural reform, the Koizumi
government published its blue-print,
entitled “Basic policies for micro-economic
management and structural reform,” in
June of this year and a very specific timetable
indicating when policies will be implemented.
Phase two is to now work to realize more fundamental
institutional reforms, like pension system
reform, tax system reform, and budget system
reform, through new legislation. “The
second stage of reform will be the core part
of the Koizumi policy and also a tougher process
to be implemented,” said Takenaka.
Another problem
is the non performing loans that plague the
Japanese banking industry.
Two policies are being implemented to alleviate
the problem, that is, providing some additional
incentives for banks to accelerate write-offs
of the non performing loans and creating a
new scheme in which reconstruction of heavily
indebted businesses become much easier. “Non
performing loans are a serious problem, but
this is indicating some companies, some business
sectors are suffering from heavy debt,” he
said. “I believe this will have a very
constructive impact on the rehabilitation of
the Japanese economy.”
Japanese consumer prices have decreased for
two consecutive years. The Japanese economy
is in a serious situation of so-called deflation,
shrinking price phenomenon. To halt this trend,
Takenaka said that cooperation between the
government and the central bank is needed.
“Now the government is supposed to promote
de-regulation so that additional demand is
created. A central bank is expected to provide
enough liquidity for the market. Although this
is a new challenge for the Japanese government,
we are going to promote this kind of new policy
mix between the government and central bank,” he
said.
“Based upon this effort, I believe we
will be able to reconstruct the Japanese economy,” said
Takenaka. “For the coming two to three
years will in itself be an intensive adjustment
period. But after that I believe we will be
able to go back to normal development growth
path.”
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