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HONG
KONG—The financial crisis that mushroomed
in the wake of September 11 will have a
lasting effect on political, social, and
economic relationships globally. But at
present, the lasting effects remain elusive.
Business and consumer confidence have been
badly shaken and it is uncertain when they
will be restored. Asian economies have
shown themselves to be particularly vulnerable
to the economic downturn in the US, plunging
quickly into the expanding recession. At
the World Economic Forum’s (WEF)
East Asia Summit 2001 business leaders
and government representatives focused
their discussions on ways to revive the
Asian economies and restore stability to
the region.
“What
the WEF provides for us is a forum and an opportunity
for those of us in business and in government,
for those of us who believe in a civil society
where we learn from one another and move forward,” said
Gordon Campbell, Premier of British Columbia,
Canada and the Rapporteur summit. “It
gives us an opportunity to build on examples
of success from the past, and to make sure
that we outline a strategy for the future that
will reinforce our mutual objectives and goals
regardless of where we live around the world.”
Fiscally, Asia is in trouble. The export-lead
Asian economies are largely dependent on the
US market. After the 1997 financial crisis,
Asian economies were able to recover largely
due to the booming American economy, and not
through much needed structural reforms. But
as Simon S.C. Tay, an Associate Professor from
the National University of Singapore, said,
this repair mechanism has all but disappeared.
No longer can Asian countries depend on the
US market as a driver of the industrializing
export based system. Without necessary reforms,
the Asian economies will be hard fetched to
bounce back so quickly post-September 11.
And this could
spell trouble for political stability. “It is essential to see that
our conception of security in the region is
a comprehensive security that depends on the
government being able to deliver forms of growth
and basically of hope for people to come up
from a very low base,” said Tat. “I
hope that China, the one country that so far
seems to be out of the fray of economic downturn,
and Japan might after some reforms be able
to lead the region back in some sort of domestic
growth in Asia.”
Restoring stability,
eliminating terrorism and stimulating economic
growth all share a
common element—each one requires the
undertaking of an aggressive anti-poverty campaign.
Participants agreed that the international
community must take an active role in such
a campaign. Such a strategy includes providing
all developing countries with equitable market
access, meeting United Nations targets for
official development assistance (ODA), and
improving domestic infrastructure, said Shamshad
Ahmad, Permanent Rep resentative of Pakistan
to the United Nations. ODA has been set at
0.7 percent of gross domestic product, but
with the exception of five countries, most
countries, he said, do not even approach half
the target rate.
Ahmad challenged
the world community to work together to contribute
to the development of
infrastructure in the developing countries
in order to make “the environment in
the developing countries receptive and conducive
for private capital ... [because] we all know
that private capital flows only in the direction
of profit.”
But Tay stressed
the importance of international cooperation
in designing mechanisms to bring
to justice the perpetrators of the attacks
of September 11. “To go after the criminals
you have to do something about the poor who
might lend support or sympathy, but that doesn’t
mean you have to solve all the world’s
poverty problems before you go after the criminals.
I think this is a real test of our ability
to think in a-symmetrical terms,” he
said.
Prolonged US
lead strikes in Afghanistan threaten to undermine
the political and economic stability
of the region. While the Asian countries have
officially expressed their support for the
US, there are growing domestic tensions within
some countries with large Muslim populations
that threaten the stability of their governments. “We
are now entering an era where the defining
factor is whether we are going to face terrorism
together or not. It is not only against America,
it is against humanity, it is against civilization,
and against international order,” said
Jusuf Wanandi, member of the Board of Trustees
and Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic
and International Studies in Jakarta, Indonesia. “And
that is why I think we have to be with the
Americans.” But at the same time, he
said, it is important for the US to continue
to be flexible about the different roles each
country can play in the war against terrorism,
so not to insight domestic instability.
The domestic
tensions have arisen perhaps because of the
US efforts to show that this
is a war against terrorism and not the Islamic
faith have not been entirely effective. “If
you speak to some of the demonstrators in the
street, the message has not gotten through
to them,” said Tay. “And in some
ways, the propaganda machine on the Osama bin
Laden side is working quite efficiently.”
Ahmad expressed
Pakistan’s concern that
a prolonged military operation in Afghanistan
could result in the flood of 1.5 million Afghan
refugees into Pakistan, and this influx, added
to the already 2.5 million residing within
the boarders, could serve to de-stabilize the
country. In the case of such an event, he called
on the support of the international community. “There
is an adverse effect on our economy and on
our trade and in terms of social economic situation,” he
said. “So all these problems are a serious
burden for Pakistan and we hope that the international
community, the world community and the business
community will join together to reduce our
economic burden.”
Also present
at the discussion was Manuel Araneta Roxas,
Secretary of Trade and Industry
of the Philippines. He reminded the audience
of the unwavering support that the Philippines
pledged to the US lead coalition against terrorism,
and said that the main challenge for the world
now is “how do the developed countries
and how do we ourselves keep on board and how
do we provide reasons for others to likewise
stay so.”
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