|
HONG KONG—With
its economic emergence, China has become
the favored foreign direct investment (FDI)
destination, attracting more than $40 billion
each year for the past 5 years. In terms
of trade flows and redirected FDI, this
has had a negative impact on the other
East and Southeast Asian economies.
“The
reality is you should be afraid of China, but
there are ways that you can benefit as well,” said
Peter Lau, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
for Giordano International, Hong Kong. “It
is not all gloom and doom—I think there
are pockets of opportunities that we can look
at in terms of doing business with China, selling
to China, or bringing the Chinese consumers
to your part of the world.”
It is not yet
clear what China’s accession
to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will
mean for every country in Asia. While there
is no consensus on who will be the winners
and who will be the losers, and undoubtably
there will be losers, the fact remains that
there will be repercussions for Asia.
“The economic growth of China does not
pose a threat to the region, world; China is
after all a developing country,” said
Xi Jinping, Governor of Fujian Province in
China. “Our economy has been developing
quite fast, but compared to many other east
Asian countries, we are still far behind.”
But with an
annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth
rate of 7.9 percent, some economies
have reason to fear China. With such fast paced
growth, the country’s ability to attract
FDI will only increase after it joins the WTO.
Opportunities for potentially high-return investment
abounds in China, and Xi came to the summit
to make sure that potential investors were
well aware of it.
“We have to build more infrastructure,” said
Xi. “I have brought with me opportunities
representing billions of US dollars for consideration
by enterprises.”
As a developing country, China needs just
about everything. So, as Xi told participants,
there are opportunities for investment in airports,
highways, railways, ports, public utilities,
electricity supply, television, and gas transport,
just to name a few.
“We need a lot of capital so that we
will be able to achieve a high-level on the
technology,” said Xi.
Xi said that his province, Fujian, has had
a GDP growth rate of 12.9 percent, and that
he expects the Fujian GDP to double in the
next decade. Investment opportunities in Fujian
include two new railways and three highways
that are need to be built for trade services.
Contending
that the development of China will change
the division of labor in the region,
thereby enhancing the region’s overall
competitiveness, Xi said that China and East
Asia “will be able to help each other
to achieve a win-win situation and have a more
beautiful tomorrow.”
But a change in the division of labor, with
labor intensive manufacturing industries moving
to China, does spell trouble for some economies
in the region.
“The low labor costs, the cheap land,
and the labor that is highly productive and
skilled have propelled China to become a major
export oriented manufacturing base in the world,” said
Vincent H.S. Lo, Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer of Shui On Holdings, Hong Kong. “Most
of these gains will come at the expense of
other Asian countries.
“Malaysia,
Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have
always relied heavily on
the foreign investment and technology that
are now streaming in to China. They do not
have the ability to move up the value added
ladder, so they are suffering a bit.”
But countries
that are able to provide value added goods
to China’s population of
1.3 billion stand to benefit from the economic
emergence of China. “Japan and Korea
will find markets for their advanced components,
capital goods, heavy industrial products, certain
consumer items, and infrastructure. We in Hong
Kong will find markets for our service sector
and Taiwan for its technology based products.
Other countries in Asia might find markets
for their resource based products, such as
oil, timber, agricultural goods, and perhaps
in certain niche manufacturing products,” he
said.
Ultimately, while displacing the assembly
activities that used to take place in some
countries to China, Asian economies with the
technical capabilities to stay ahead of China
will benefit and those relying on foreign technology
will find there positions threatened.
“The impact is tremendous, lets not
kid ourselves,” said Lau. “China
is, especially after September 11, the work
shop of the world.”
But in looking at ways that countries threatened
by China can adapt to the changing economic
order, Lau called upon Southeast Asia to look
toward its own natural advantages in eduction,
language, and climate. With increasing numbers
of Chinese with disposable incomes looking
to travel, Lau said that countries should look
to develop their tourism industries, suggesting
that everyone in the service sector learn Mandarin.
“Southeast Asia provides the sun, the
beaches, good food, and hotels,” he said. “So
turn yourself into a smokeless industry, that
is one thing that you can do in the short term.
Take advantage of the natural advantage that
you have.”
Another advantage
that Asian countries could tap into is creating
uncomplicated, non-bureaucratic
institutions that make it easy for foreigners
to invest and do business. “If you can
move faster, liberalize your economy, open
it to free trade before China will, I think
that you can get a lot of headway, and attract
FDI into your country,” Lau said.
The economies that certainly will be able
to benefit are those that can penetrate the
growing Chinese markets, develop complimentary
relations with the Chinese economy, attract
investment from China, and create development
partnerships with China.
|