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The Earth Times | MELBOURNE AIDS CONFERENCE

 

China’s economic emergence is ‘not all gloom and doom’ for Asia
> BY SACHA SHIVDASANI
Copyright © 2002 by The Earth Times. All rights reserved


HONG KONG—With its economic emergence, China has become the favored foreign direct investment (FDI) destination, attracting more than $40 billion each year for the past 5 years. In terms of trade flows and redirected FDI, this has had a negative impact on the other East and Southeast Asian economies.

“The reality is you should be afraid of China, but there are ways that you can benefit as well,” said Peter Lau, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer for Giordano International, Hong Kong. “It is not all gloom and doom—I think there are pockets of opportunities that we can look at in terms of doing business with China, selling to China, or bringing the Chinese consumers to your part of the world.”

It is not yet clear what China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will mean for every country in Asia. While there is no consensus on who will be the winners and who will be the losers, and undoubtably there will be losers, the fact remains that there will be repercussions for Asia.

“The economic growth of China does not pose a threat to the region, world; China is after all a developing country,” said Xi Jinping, Governor of Fujian Province in China. “Our economy has been developing quite fast, but compared to many other east Asian countries, we are still far behind.”

But with an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 7.9 percent, some economies have reason to fear China. With such fast paced growth, the country’s ability to attract FDI will only increase after it joins the WTO. Opportunities for potentially high-return investment abounds in China, and Xi came to the summit to make sure that potential investors were well aware of it.

“We have to build more infrastructure,” said Xi. “I have brought with me opportunities representing billions of US dollars for consideration by enterprises.”

As a developing country, China needs just about everything. So, as Xi told participants, there are opportunities for investment in airports, highways, railways, ports, public utilities, electricity supply, television, and gas transport, just to name a few.

“We need a lot of capital so that we will be able to achieve a high-level on the technology,” said Xi.

Xi said that his province, Fujian, has had a GDP growth rate of 12.9 percent, and that he expects the Fujian GDP to double in the next decade. Investment opportunities in Fujian include two new railways and three highways that are need to be built for trade services.

Contending that the development of China will change the division of labor in the region, thereby enhancing the region’s overall competitiveness, Xi said that China and East Asia “will be able to help each other to achieve a win-win situation and have a more beautiful tomorrow.”

But a change in the division of labor, with labor intensive manufacturing industries moving to China, does spell trouble for some economies in the region.

“The low labor costs, the cheap land, and the labor that is highly productive and skilled have propelled China to become a major export oriented manufacturing base in the world,” said Vincent H.S. Lo, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Shui On Holdings, Hong Kong. “Most of these gains will come at the expense of other Asian countries.

“Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have always relied heavily on the foreign investment and technology that are now streaming in to China. They do not have the ability to move up the value added ladder, so they are suffering a bit.”

But countries that are able to provide value added goods to China’s population of 1.3 billion stand to benefit from the economic emergence of China. “Japan and Korea will find markets for their advanced components, capital goods, heavy industrial products, certain consumer items, and infrastructure. We in Hong Kong will find markets for our service sector and Taiwan for its technology based products. Other countries in Asia might find markets for their resource based products, such as oil, timber, agricultural goods, and perhaps in certain niche manufacturing products,” he said.

Ultimately, while displacing the assembly activities that used to take place in some countries to China, Asian economies with the technical capabilities to stay ahead of China will benefit and those relying on foreign technology will find there positions threatened.

“The impact is tremendous, lets not kid ourselves,” said Lau. “China is, especially after September 11, the work shop of the world.”

But in looking at ways that countries threatened by China can adapt to the changing economic order, Lau called upon Southeast Asia to look toward its own natural advantages in eduction, language, and climate. With increasing numbers of Chinese with disposable incomes looking to travel, Lau said that countries should look to develop their tourism industries, suggesting that everyone in the service sector learn Mandarin.

“Southeast Asia provides the sun, the beaches, good food, and hotels,” he said. “So turn yourself into a smokeless industry, that is one thing that you can do in the short term. Take advantage of the natural advantage that you have.”

Another advantage that Asian countries could tap into is creating uncomplicated, non-bureaucratic institutions that make it easy for foreigners to invest and do business. “If you can move faster, liberalize your economy, open it to free trade before China will, I think that you can get a lot of headway, and attract FDI into your country,” Lau said.

The economies that certainly will be able to benefit are those that can penetrate the growing Chinese markets, develop complimentary relations with the Chinese economy, attract investment from China, and create development partnerships with China.

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