The UN Framework on the Convention on Climate Change 7th Conference of the Parties (COP7) will take place "despite suggestions that it should not," said Michael Zammit Cutajar, Executive Secretary of the Convention, speaking at a press briefing in New York Monday morning.

COP7 is set to run from October 29 to November 9, and will be the first major United Nations conference to be held after the attacks in the US on September 11. Both the World Children's Summit, due to be held in New York September 19 through 21, and the annual World Bank International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings, due to be held in Washington DC September 29 through 30, were canceled after the attacks.

The US withdrew from the treaty in April, although they remain signatories to the convention. This conference is the last chance for the remaining 186 member nations to get an agreement on the five outstanding points of contention: mechanisms, compliance, monitoring, policies and measures, and carbon sinks.

Although Cutajar acknowledged that compliance and the enforceability of the Kyoto Treaty were still unresolved issues, he feels optimistic about a "good result." His optimism comes in no small part from what he called "strong indications" from the 15 block members of the European Union that if an agreement was reached Marrakech all of the block countries would push for ratification.

Cutajar said that he hoped that Marrakech would be the last of the COP meetings, especially since it would be his last as well. The writing of the rules that govern climate change will end in Marrakech.

What is needed, he said, are numbers. "The arithmetic of ratification," all comes down to the magic number of 55, he said. The total number of countries that have ratified so far is 40 and only one of them, Romania, is an Annex I country. Annex I countries are first world countries that bear the burden of reducing their fossil fuel emissions by varying assigned percentages below their 1990 levels. Annex II countries, mostly developing countries, have no responsibility to reduce beyond a pledge of good faith.

The US represented about 25 percent of global green house emissions in 1990, the combined European block about 24.2 percent. If the EU ratifies the treaty it will bring the number of countries up to 55. Switzerland, New Zealand, Norway and Iceland, who are known to favor the European line, make up about 8.2 percent of global emissions. Other major annex one countries are the Russian Federation (14.4 percent), Japan (8.5 percent), and Australia (5.4 percent).

The treaty requires that Annex one nations making up 55 percent of global emissions in 1990 ratify the treaty before it become international law. This makes Russia the crucial country--without the US and Russia combined all other annex one countries do not make the required 55 percent.

Cutajar noted that he was negotiating very hard with the Russians for the best possible terms, and that it is in their own economic interests to join. Without the crucial 55 percent of countries in annex one producing 55 percent of all fossil fuel emissions in 1990 agreeing on the Kyoto Protocol in Marrakech, the treaty is at risk of failing.