As
delegates from over 160 nations departed the UN-sponsored
global warming conference in Bonn last July, little
did they realize that their next meeting slated
for the exotic Moroccan city of Marrakesh would
be overshadowed by the outbreak of war. The terrorist
attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and
the Pentagon just outside of Washington have focused
America's - and the world's attention - on the
effort to punish those responsible for the murder
of 5,000 people on September 11.
The
war on terrorism has led to a drastic reordering of
priorities by nations directly involved in the conflict.
In the US, for example, government funds originally
allocated for a host of domestic spending programs
are being redirected to pay for the war and to pick
up the tab for what is being called "homeland
security." And it's not just the US that is preoccupied
by the war. Among the industrialized nations, Britain,
Germany, Russia, and even Japan - just to name a few
- are seeing their energies increasingly devoted to
countering terrorism.
Meanwhile,
reducing emissions of manmade greenhouse
gases, using "sinks" to
soak up excess carbon in the atmosphere,
and transferring energy efficient technologies
to developing nations have all had to take
a back seat to what is widely seen as more
pressing concerns. One of the biggest tasks
facing the delegates in Marrakesh is convincing
the rest of the world that what they are
doing is relevant. Indeed, just getting the
international media's attention for anything
longer than a sound bite would be a small
triumph.
Though the
world may little note nor long remember
what happens at COP-7, negotiators
nonetheless will be kept busy picking up
where they left off in Bonn. By concluding
the Bonn Agreement in July, delegates succeeded
in creating the appearance that some progress
had been made on issues that had sparked
the collapse of climate change talks in The
Hague last November. While the Bonn Agreement
substantially watered down the Kyoto Protocol,
the compromises made to get a deal were deemed
far preferable than a repeat of last November's
COP-6 fiasco. "The work of translating
the Bonn Agreement into a detailed operational
rulebook must be completed here in Marrakesh," said
Michael Zammit Cutajar, executive secretary
of the Convention. "Operational" has
become the key word at Marrakesh. The goal,
according to Cutajar, is the creation of
a "low-carbon economy" for the
future. To that end, negotiators in Marrakesh
will be charged with:
- Clarifying the role "sinks" are
to play in assisting developed nations
in reaching their emissions-reduction
targets. Sinks - forests, farmlands,
and grazing
lands - that soak up atmospheric carbon,
are a relatively painless way for industrialized
countries to deal with carbon emissions.
In Bonn, the EU warmed up to the idea
of sinks after it became clear that
Australia,
Russia, and Canada needed an incentive
to stick with the Kyoto Protocol after
the Bush administration rejected the
treaty. Negotiators in Bonn, agreed
that sinks
would make up only a fraction of a
country's reductions of its greenhouse
gases, with
the rest to come from changes in energy
policy highlighted by a shift away
from the use of fossil fuels.
- Working out details of the pledge industrialized
countries made at Bonn to provide developing
nations with $410 million annually beginning
in 2005 to assist them in managing their
emissions and adapting to climate change.
- Developing guidelines for the Clean Development
Mechanism, under which industrialized countries
will use energy efficiency, renewable energy,
and sinks to meet their emissions-reduction
targets. The Bonn Agreement expressly prohibits
the use of nuclear power plants, which
emit no greenhouse gases, from being used
in the Clean Development Mechanism.
- Establishing an enforcement mechanism
that ensures that countries actually keep
their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.
In an effort to give the Kyoto process
further momentum, the EU has announced
that its member nations plan to ratify
the global warming treaty by late 2002,
in time for the tenth anniversary of the
signing of the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro. Similarly,
Japanese officials have announced that
the Kyoto Protocol will be submitted the
Diet for ratification next year. As for
the US, Washington had originally planed
to present at COP-7 its plans for voluntary
reductions of greenhouse gases. But drafting
of the American position has been delayed
indefinitely as a result of the attacks
of September 11. At Marrakesh, the US will,
as it did in Bonn, simply observe the proceedings
and make no effort to obstruct the negotiations.
Still,
the US will have a strong presence in Marrakesh,
with the formidable Paula Dobriansky
heading the delegation. Speculation that
the Bush White House might reconsider its
rejection of the Kyoto Protocol was dashed
in mid-October by Harlan Watson, the State
Department's Chief Climate Negotiator and
Special Representative. In a speech before
the Royal Institute of International Affairs
in London, Watson said the US "does
not believe the Kyoto Protocol is the right
answer to the challenge of climate change.
The Protocol is flawed - its targets are
arbitrary and in many cases unrealistic,
it does not include developing countries
and the cost would harm the US economy."
In one respect, the gathering in Marrakesh
will provide an interesting contrast to the
conferences in The Hague and Bonn. Washington
was the designated "bad guy" in
The Hague for insisting on the use of sinks.
The EU's refusal to go along with sinks led
to the collapse of the talks. At Bonn, the
US was back in the "bad guy" role
after President Bush's rejection of the Kyoto
Protocol. The tensions between the US delegation
and those from countries supporting the treaty
surfaced on more than a few occasions at
both conferences. If it does nothing else,
the war on global terrorism will serve to
cool tempers in Marrakesh. As the delegates
know only too well, bigger things are now
at stake.
Bonner R. Cohen is a senior fellow at the
Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va.
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