The Earth Times | Posted October 1, 2002

WORLD IN CHALLENGE
Scholars debate future of security in South Asia
> BY AMOL SHARMA
Copyright © 2002 by The Earth Times. All rights reserved>

"This is a big opportunity to bring about lasting peace in the region," said General V.P. Malik, a retired Indian general who delivered a thirty-minute presentation on India's changing military priorities.

The event, which was organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, focused on the economic, political, and military dimensions of America's relationship with India. The first several presentations dealt with India's economic potential and its struggle to undertake unpopular economic reforms. They were followed by a lunch address by Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning at the State Department, which was closed to the media. The last two panels focused on regional security and arms control in the context of US-India cooperation.

Though the planners of the event had sent out invitations to speakers in advance of September 11th, most of the presentations were given in the context of current events, never straying too far from an underlying theme of terrorism. Much of the discussion centered on the delicate balance the United States must strike in supporting Pakistan, while acknowledging what many here said are credible links between the Pakistani government-and in particular Pakistan's main intelligence agency-and alleged terrorist activities.

"There is a link between Pakistan and the Taliban," General Malik said. "Let's not be naïve to say there's no link between the two."

The issue of Pakistani-sponsored terrorism in the disputed territory of Kashmir is what worries Indian officials most, many panelists said. India may try to link the violence on its own northern borders with the American-led effort against global terrorism, forcing the United States into a difficult diplomatic position.

"The government of India wants to associate the violence in Srinagar (Kashmir) with international terrorism and wants it to be recognized as such," said Howard Schaffer, Director of Studies at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University. Schaffer spoke on the panel entitled "Terrorism and Regional Security".

India is already concerned that an improved US-Pakistani relationship, resulting from enhanced cooperation in the war on terrorism, will damage Indian interests if America turns a blind eye to an accelerated state sponsored Pakistani campaign in Kashmir. Rakesh Sood, Ambassador for Disarmament at the permanent Indian mission to the UN in Geneva, said it is up to the US to assuage that concern.

"You have to disabuse [Pakistani President] Musharraf of the notion that because he is a useful member of the coalition that it is open season as far as Kashmir is concerned," Sood said.

General Malik's comments on Pakistan's role in fomenting terrorist activities were particularly incisive. He said the United States must focus more attention on the "madrassahs" in Pakistan, the religious schools he says are responsible for training and inspiring the religious zealots that have taken their cause to Afghanistan and Kashmir.

"We're talking of removing terrorism, but terrorism has started from the madrassahs", Malik said. Ten officials in the current Taliban regime, he said, came from madrassahs. Malik acknowledged the importance of socio economic development in curtailing this phenomenon, blaming widespread poverty and a lack of public schools for the rise of madrassahs in Pakistan. But he said the physical destruction of these schools should be part of America's military campaign in the region.

Many of the speakers struggled to define terrorism, though they agreed that state-sponsorship of violence against civilians and civilian property certainly qualifies. There was no consensus as to what separates terrorists from freedom fighters -- those engaged on military fronts to propel viable political agendas. That distinction is particularly relevant in Kashmir, where Pakistan says Muslim insurgents are waging a legitimate war for self-determination.

One of the key themes of the conference was the re-emergence of India and Pakistan in US foreign policy. India was already becoming a greater element in the US foreign policy agenda in recent years on the diplomatic and economic fronts, as US President Bill Clinton's visit to India last year demonstrated, though the issue of India's nuclear capabilities remains a sensitive topic. In contrast, America's renewed interest in Pakistan, a by-product of the war it is currently prosecuting in the region, is a drastic change. In recent years, the US had distanced itself from Pakistan's unelected regime, leaving tough sanctions in place-sanctions that have now been lifted.

Secretary of State Colin Powell's trip this week to the region, where he is calling on India and Pakistan to normalize relations, underscores how the events of September 11th have transformed the importance of the region-especially the fate of Kashmir -- for the US. "It is inevitable that the American interest in the containment of the Kashmir crisis increases, not diminishes, after September 11," said Frank Wisner, former US Ambassador to India, who moderated one of the panels.

The new strategic context may provide the best opportunity for fruitful talks on the Kashmir problem between India and Pakistan, especially with American backing, experts here said.

>From India's perspective, increased engagement by the US in the region may help bring extremism in Pakistan under control. "The US and India have a common interest in stabilizing and cleansing Pakistan," said Raja Mohan, an editor for The Hindu, an Indian English language newspaper. Mohan also said that to the extent America becomes more engaged in South Asia, its policies will be shaped largely by its larger interests in the campaign on terrorism. "Terrorism will be the central framework for US relations with India and all countries in the region," he said.

Still, the panelists pointed to other reasons for the US to stay engaged in the region. India occupies a strategic niche in Asia that could play an important role in any American effort to contain China as its economic and military power grow. Additionally, the US is eager to continue its efforts towards non-proliferation in both India and Pakistan.

The conference dedicated one entire panel to the nuclear proliferation issue, but there was debate over its importance in the current environment.

Raja Mohan said, "non proliferation, while remaining an objective, doesn't seem...to have the same prime place it used to." But Stephen Cohen, a South Asia expert at the Brookings Institute, countered that non proliferation will remain a high priority for US policy makers, though the methods used to encourage it about may change.

Along with their expert analyses of the US-India relationship, the speakers offered up many questions, underscoring the uncertainty that hangs over the future of South Asia. The experts said the success of US policy in bringing about stability in the region and peace between Indian and Pakistan will depend partly on continued engagement by the US in the region, but also on the domestic choices these countries face: If India restrains from using the US-led war on terrorism as a basis for prosecuting its own war on terrorism in Kashmir and if General Musharraf holds onto power without appeasing or supporting fundamentalists, the prospects for stability will be good.