In an extraordinary
turn of events, Russia and the United States
are moving towards a new phase of real
collaboration and cooperation in their
often tense and difficult relations. Combined
with China's entry into the WTO, this rapprochement
is likely to be the most important event
changing the shape of world politics in
the early decades of the 21st century.
Alongside its change of heart towards the
US and Europe, Vladimir Putin's Russia
also seems determined to join the WTO as
soon as possible, making that trading group
a truly universal organization.
Tuesday's
summit in Washington between President George Bush
and Putin offers hope on several counts for a more
peaceful world. The impetus for the new and closer
relationship between Washington and Moscow came from
America's new global war against terrorism and Russia,
with its horrific record in Chechnya, is a strange
bedfellow. But the world as a whole stands to gain
from Russia becoming a partner rather than a spoiler
in current efforts to bring the world's trading, financial
and security systems under the rule of transparent
international disciplines.
Above all, successful Russian efforts to prevent
sale or theft of its nuclear, chemical and microbiological
weapons technologies are critically important for
the rest of this century and for the war against
terrorism. Success also depends on Russian businesses
becoming more lawful, faster Russian economic growth,
the spread of democracy to its various regions
and a more confident security relationship with
the US.
Russia needs help from the US and Europe for all
of those elements. But that help cannot be given
without guarantees that Putin not only firmly believes
in friendship rather than rivalry with the West,
but also has the political clout within Russia
to impose his writ from Moscow to the Pacific Ocean.
These are very tall orders but worth pursuing for
the sake of a stable global family of nations.
World trade expansion can boost world economic
growth only against a background of investor and
consumer confidence that we are moving toward more
peaceful global and regional relations. The key
relationship along that path is the one between
the US and Russia, which although a shadow of the
Soviet Union, has great potential of becoming a
disruptive influence if it continues to lurch from
one domestic crisis to another.
The US cannot do much to influence how Russia
handles its internal affairs, but it can demonstrate
wisdom by placing its bilateral relationship in
the context of the needs of the world as a whole.
What the world does not need is a Putin frustrated
by Washington's unwillingness to be flexible and
its preference for bending a weakened Russia to
its will rather than meeting Putin half way. That
would push Putin into closer relations with China,
greater distrust of the US presence in South and
Central Asia, and more stubbornness on issues affecting
the expansion of NATO and the European Union into
Central and East Europe.
The immediate roadblocks to a more fruitful relationship
with Russia are Washington's desire to change the
START and ABM arms controls treaties on the grounds
that they are the products of a Cold War that no
longer exists, and Washington's desire to build
an umbrella against missile attacks from so-called
rogue states such as North Korea and Iraq. Putin,
a former KGB operative, realizes that a major reason
for the Soviet Union's collapse was its impoverishment
caused by the arms race with America. He sees the
missile shield program as another such Trojan horse
that will stop Russia from ever becoming a successful
economic power.
Putin is trying to keep an open mind on these
security issues but could do with a little flexibility
on the part of Bush. That flexibility is warranted
because the greater need today is to integrate
Russia into the international community as a constructive
member dedicated to an orderly and peaceful world,
rather than as a secret proliferator of challenges
to such a world. Russia's record of the last decade
is not good. Its weapons, including nuclear fuels
and chemical and microbiological compounds, are
thought to have been stolen or sold to unsavory
elements. Its Chechnya campaigns have been models
of cruelty and systematic violations of human rights
and its other interventions are creating instability
in at least four countries that used to be Soviet
republics, including Georgia. The lawlessness of
its mafias and business methods within Russia are
legendary.
Yet, there is ample room for fruitful and peaceful
relationships. Russia owns the second largest reserves
of oil and gas in the world.
Its relationship with India can be a moderating
influence in the regional tensions over Kashmir
and its historical expertise on China can help
to better integrate that giant into the world economy
with less upheaval. As the terrorist attacks of
September 11 have shown, the West is on the edge
of an erosion of its power in world affairs as
other peoples rise up to confront its values and
dominance. The billion-strong Islamic world and
the 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians are at the
leading edge of that challenge. To prevent those
challenges from degenerating into instability,
the US and Europe will have to extend more genuinely
open hands of partnership and listen to others
as intently as they lecture. The Bush-Putin summit
is a good place to start.
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