Combined
with the apparent collapse of the Taliban regime
in Afghanistan, the results of the Doha conference
pave the way for fresh departures in world trade
and economic growth that my take nearly a decade
to show their results. But those will be constructive
years, rather than sterile ones of complaints and
counter complaints based on the unfinished quarrels
of the past
.
It may
take at least 10 years for Afghanistan to stabilize
after nearly a quarter century of internecine wars,
but the scourge of terrorism with global reach will
have been weakened sufficiently to remove some of the
chief uncertainties that are bad for business, bad
for trade and bad for economic prosperity. At the same
time, new and more balanced negotiations within the
WTO framework to foster world trade growth will open
the road to a global economy that brings all nations
together into one family, instead of serving mainly
protect the interests of the rich against those of
the poor.
The title given to
those negotiations
does not matter. Is
it a new round? Is
it a development round
designed expressly
to meet the needs of
emerging and developing
economies and poor
countries? What counts
is the results and
those will take five
to 10 years to arrive.
But the confidence
factors that underlie
a more stable and peaceful
family of nations have
received a much needed
boost from the fact
that terrorists no
longer have a safe
haven anywhere in the
world, combined with
the willingness demonstrated
at Qatar to create
a more equitable and
fair system of global
trade relations.
The WTO emerged timidly
from the GATT cocoon
a half decade ago and
it has already won
a secure place for
itself as a dedicated
promoter of world trade
and economic expansion.
That deserves recognition
and congratulations.
Doha has sent a welcome
signal that the politically
powerful are keen and
willing to treat their
weaker counterparts
with equity and to
place their bilateral
or regional trade links
in the context of a
vision of the better
place, which the global
community should reach
in 10 years time.
The fact that many
developing countries
no longer mince words
when arguing trade
with the US and Europe
is a fitting tribute
to the efficacy of
world trade growth
in bringing more wealth
and skills to the poor.
The most serious challenges
to developing country
acumen will come not
from the stubbornness
of American and European
negotiators but from
the overwhelming place
that China is set to
occupy in Asia and,
to a lesser extent,
around the world. In
a surprising turnaround
for one of the world's
most protectionist
and chaotic economies,
China has offered a
free trade zone within
10 years to the tiger
economies of ASEAN.
If that happens, India
and Brazil will have
much more to worry
about than just reverse
engineering Western
medicines without interference
from international
patent regimes. Argentina,
one of the world's
10 richest countries
just 50 years ago,
bankrupted itself in
just 10 years because
of awful governance
and corruption. With
China offering high
quality products at
throwaway prices, India
may be next in line
for collapse if it
does not break out
of its vicious circle
of red tape, nepotism,
corruption and short-sighted
policies that pay little
heed to the medium
to long-term consequences
of positions that appear
to be sensible today.
In the end, each developing
country has to choose
whether to work itself
to the bone for low
dollar values or to
move upwards to higher
dollar values. If the
goal is to move up
to higher dollar values,
the WTO already offers
several stepping-stones.
If the goal is to continue
as in the past, the
WTO has little to offer
whether or not there
is a new Development
Round of world trade
negotiations.
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