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The Earth Times | Posted November 12, 2001



WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, FOURTH MINISTERIAL MEETING

Analysis: 'A matter of dollars and cents'

> BY DEVIKA SAHDEV
Copyright © 2002 by The Earth Times. All rights reserved

China was welcomed into to the World Trade Organization Saturday evening as its 143rd member nation with a standing ovation, bringing the world's last major communist power to the planet's largest free-market -oriented institution.

"After 15 years of difficult negotiations we finally come to this historical moment," said Shi Guangsheng, Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation.

The impact of the largest single market on the globe may take many years to be felt both within China and in the world markets. China is coming closer to a crossroads where it must soon decide to follow one path of the two that it has navigated so carefully the past few years. On the one hand China is a developing nation, a frequent ally of the Group of 77 (G77) developing nations, and on the other its sheer size gives it the potential to be a third world economic power, along with the US and the European Union.

In his first speech after the accession, Shi threw his billion-person weight behind the American call for a new round of WTO negotiations.

"China believes that a new round would be conducive to the development of a new economic order," Shi said, "and would help achieve balance between the developed and the developing nations."

Yet only two weeks ago in a joint press release with G77, China warned "any decision to conduct negotiations on these issues in WTO should be on a consensual basis and would need to be carefully assessed in respect of any implication on developing countries and their capacity to engage in negotiations."

Some developing nations see China's opening market as a threat, a lure too tempting to ignore for many multi-national corporations looking to invest in emerging markets.

"China is absolutely not a threat given the size of the economy. Given that China has a long way to go, but China is very keen," said Andre J.P. Lemay, a Canadian delegate. "China is very willing to become an active player in the WTO. Will it become a champion of the developing countries? Will it become a member of the G8, G9? I mean it's very, very early in the game."

Some observers who have been watching China for a while say that both roles maybe possible.

"From a practical point of view China would feel it would like to represent the G77 on the one hand," said Kunio Mikuriya, a Japanese delegate who spent some time of the WTO accession committee negotiating China's entry, "and then become a member of the G8 in the long run. It's natural for them to join that forum."

China's share of world trade is four percent, and it may take it 10 years to double that, said Dr. Adisai Bodharamik, Thai Minister of Commerce and next WTO Director General. "But already China dwarfs the developing world in foreign direct investment (FDI). It is second only to the United States, accounting for 80 percent of FDI going into Asia, some $40 billion annually."

Tin Maung Aye, a delegate from Myanmar, said, "We are happy to have China amongst us, and as an immediate neighbor and trading partner we are so happy to welcome them."

"We do not feel threatened in any way by this, and we feel that there will be no changes any time soon," he said.

Not everyone is so sure.

"It is important and proper that China come in, until we get them on a level playing field then other countries will realize that it's not so level when China undercuts them," said Bill Jordan, Secretary General of the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU). "Developed countries don't have to worry too much, but there is a real threat to developing countries. How can India, for example, compete with China when Indian products come with the price of democracy and proper trade union representation?"

Jordan spent some time in China advising on union policies in dealing with large multi-national corporations. He told the Conference News Daily that he urged China to give a greater voice to smaller independent unions. But, he said, but once he mentioned the names of the union leaders to the government, many were arrested. He said China's unions are weak and often government-controlled.

These kinds of reforms within China may take years, if not decades, but the opening up of its borders may have a more immediate effect on the Chinese, according to first person anecdotal evidence.

Zhuan Nengding, a reporter with the Shenzhen Economic Daily told the Conference News Daily that on a recent trip to Beijing he met a cab driver who said that he looked forward to China's entry into the WTO as it meant that he would be able to buy a cheaper car.

"He said that many people in China have enough money to buy a car, but are waiting until 2005, when the tariffs will come down so they can get really good cars for less money.

"That a common taxicab driver can talk about this-a serious world trade concern-I was very surprised."

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