China
was welcomed into to the World Trade Organization
Saturday evening as its 143rd
member nation with a standing ovation, bringing
the world's last major communist power to
the planet's largest free-market -oriented
institution.
"After
15 years of difficult negotiations we finally come
to this historical moment," said Shi Guangsheng,
Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation.
The impact of the largest single market on the
globe may take many years to be felt both within
China and in the world markets. China is coming
closer to a crossroads where it must soon decide
to follow one path of the two that it has navigated
so carefully the past few years. On the one hand
China is a developing nation, a frequent ally of
the Group of 77 (G77) developing nations, and on
the other its sheer size gives it the potential
to be a third world economic power, along with
the US and the European Union.
In his first speech after the accession, Shi threw
his billion-person weight behind the American call
for a new round of WTO negotiations.
"China believes that a new round would be
conducive to the development of a new economic
order," Shi said, "and would help achieve
balance between the developed and the developing
nations."
Yet only two weeks
ago in a joint press release with G77, China
warned "any decision to conduct
negotiations on these issues in WTO should be on
a consensual basis and would need to be carefully
assessed in respect of any implication on developing
countries and their capacity to engage in negotiations."
Some developing nations see China's opening market
as a threat, a lure too tempting to ignore for
many multi-national corporations looking to invest
in emerging markets.
"China is absolutely not a threat given the
size of the economy. Given that China has a long
way to go, but China is very keen," said Andre
J.P. Lemay, a Canadian delegate. "China is
very willing to become an active player in the
WTO. Will it become a champion of the developing
countries? Will it become a member of the G8, G9?
I mean it's very, very early in the game."
Some observers who have been watching China for
a while say that both roles maybe possible.
"From a practical point of view China would
feel it would like to represent the G77 on the
one hand," said Kunio Mikuriya, a Japanese
delegate who spent some time of the WTO accession
committee negotiating China's entry, "and
then become a member of the G8 in the long run.
It's natural for them to join that forum."
China's share of
world trade is four percent, and it may take
it 10 years to double that, said
Dr. Adisai Bodharamik, Thai Minister of Commerce
and next WTO Director General. "But already
China dwarfs the developing world in foreign direct
investment (FDI). It is second only to the United
States, accounting for 80 percent of FDI going
into Asia, some $40 billion annually."
Tin Maung Aye,
a delegate from Myanmar, said, "We
are happy to have China amongst us, and as an immediate
neighbor and trading partner we are so happy to
welcome them."
"We do not feel threatened in any way by
this, and we feel that there will be no changes
any time soon," he said.
Not everyone is so sure.
"It is important and proper that China come
in, until we get them on a level playing field
then other countries will realize that it's not
so level when China undercuts them," said
Bill Jordan, Secretary General of the International
Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU). "Developed
countries don't have to worry too much, but there
is a real threat to developing countries. How can
India, for example, compete with China when Indian
products come with the price of democracy and proper
trade union representation?"
Jordan spent some time in China advising on union
policies in dealing with large multi-national corporations.
He told the Conference News Daily that he urged
China to give a greater voice to smaller independent
unions. But, he said, but once he mentioned the
names of the union leaders to the government, many
were arrested. He said China's unions are weak
and often government-controlled.
These kinds of reforms within China may take years,
if not decades, but the opening up of its borders
may have a more immediate effect on the Chinese,
according to first person anecdotal evidence.
Zhuan Nengding, a reporter with the Shenzhen Economic
Daily told the Conference News Daily that on a
recent trip to Beijing he met a cab driver who
said that he looked forward to China's entry into
the WTO as it meant that he would be able to buy
a cheaper car.
"He said that
many people in China have enough money to buy
a car, but are waiting until 2005,
when the tariffs will come down so they can get
really good cars for less money.
"That a common
taxicab driver can talk about this-a serious
world trade concern-I was very surprised."
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