"We have tough negotiations being carried out by tough negotiators," commented Michael Zammit Cutajar, executive director of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Cutajar's remarks were made at a press conference here today at which he made no secret of the difficulties standing in the way of a successful conclusion of the UN-sponsored meeting. At the same time, however, Cutajar noted that talks typically bog down the day before adjournment, as negotiators face the rapidly approaching deadline to wrap up the conference.

The conference in Marrakech is ultimately about creating such clarity in the myriad provisions of the Kyoto Protocol that 1) countries will know what they are getting when they ratify the treaty and 2) enough of them ratify the pact to enable it to go into force. For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, 55 countries responsible for 55 percent of the world's greenhouse-gas emissions must ratify it. With the Bush administration's rejection of the global warming treaty, the arithmetic becomes tricky. The failure of either Russia or Japan - not to mention both - to ratify the climate pact would doom the treaty.

This, in turn, has put Moscow and Tokyo in a strong bargaining position in Marrakech. The Russians still refuse to back down from their demand that its emissions-reduction credit for carbon sinks be doubled to 34 million metric tons. But because the Russian demand far exceeds what was agreed to in Bonn last summer, the EU refuses to go along. The EU fears, not without justification, that giving in to Moscow will open the flood gates for similar demands from other countries.

The talks in Marrakech are supposed to build on the "breakthrough" achieved last July in Bonn where climate change negotiators thought they had rescued the Kyoto Protocol. But if the Bonn Agreement becomes subject to negotiations in Marrakech, COP-7 will have been turned on its head.

Japan is also flexing its muscles at Marrakech. The Japanese are raising questions about the compliance system delegates agreed to Tuesday night. In addition to their well-known opposition to legally binding emissions targets, the Japanese are reluctant to go along with the mandatory annual reporting of emissions reductions set forth in the compliance system. In general, Tokyo favors a far more flexible system of mechanisms to reduce its emissions than the EU.

What has escaped no one's attention is that the Japanese commitment to ratify the Kyoto Protocol is not iron clad. Last month, Tokyo announced it would submit the global warming treaty to the Diet for ratification next year, well in advance of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) set for September 2002. When such a vote would take place, however, is another question.

Cutajar and other treaty proponents want the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force by the WSSD in Johannesburg. Continued foot-dragging by Russia and Japan - and possibly Australia - could jeopardize that timetable. As Cutajar put it today, those countries that have not made a firm commitment to ratification "are in a strong position in Marrakech."

In addition to disputes over the size and composition of sinks, and to the disagreements on the compliance system, COP-7 negotiators have been confronted with another problem. The least developed countries, or LDCs, are expressing their frustration over delays in "capacity building," or the transfer of funds and energy technology to poorer nations. Compared with the dispute involving Russia's demands, the issue of capacity building and the LDCs seems like a minor irritant. But it underscores the many tasks negotiators face as the conference winds down.

In keeping with its pledge "to observe and participate, but not to obstruct," the US is staying out of the spotlight in Marrakech. After meeting with members of the US delegation yesterday, EU Environmental Commissioner Margot Wallstrom acknowledged today that the Americans are "not interested" in the Kyoto Protocol. While this was hardly news to anyone familiar with the Bush administration's stance on the issue, it puts increased pressure on COP-7 negotiators to come to terms with Russia and Japan. Time is running short.

Bonner R. Cohen is a senior fellow at the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va.