As has become increasingly clear over the last four years, the pledges made at Kyoto to reduce manmade emissions of greenhouse gases were just that - statements of intent. Details on how to make the complicated arrangement workable have been left to follow-up conferences in Buenos Aires, The Hague, and Bonn. The road has been a rocky one. Washington, the driving force behind the global warming issue during the Clinton administration, has rejected the treaty under President Bush.

In an effort to keep other key industrialized nations-notably Russia and Australia-from breaking ranks, the European Union made far-reaching concessions in Bonn last July that would enable industrialized countries to meet their emissions-reduction targets with a minimum of economic pain.

By far the biggest concession was the EU's willingness to allow signatories to broad use of carbon "sinks" in reducing their emissions. Sinks are forests, croplands, and grazing lands that soak up atmospheric carbon. Russia and Australia, like the US and Canada, abound in sinks and Moscow and Canberra remain eager to use their natural resources to get credit for reducing carbon emissions. As the world's largest exporter of coal, Australia has a long history, and a substantial economic stake, in the burning of fossil fuels.

Russia's situation is even more delicate. Since the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Empire, Russia has been undergoing a wrenching transformation to a free-market economy. With another frigid winter just a few weeks away, asking the long-suffering Russian people to make sacrifices for the sake of combatting global warming isn't something Moscow is eager to do. On the contrary, the Russians appear determined to use their economic weakness to gain political advantages in Marrakech. On October 29, Russia said it wanted its credits for sinks doubled to 34 million metric tons. Rejecting the Russian request will not be easy; Moscow could simply threaten to join Washington in turning its back on Kyoto.

Though this may be little more than a bluff, the treaty's supporters, particularly in the EU, can't be sure. And it's not a risk they want to take. With Washington out of the Kyoto game, Russia is key. For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, 55 countries responsible for 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions must ratify it. Should Russia refuse to ratify, Kyoto's 55-percent requirement becomes unattainable.

And, even more so than Australia, Russia is an unlikely recruit in any war against fossil fuels. The country is a major exporter of natural gas, particularly to Germany, and has enormous reserves of crude oil under Siberia's icy tundra. For a nation striving to regain its place among the world's power elite, fossil fuels may have a lot more to offer than a global warming treaty. Russia's huge oil reserves and America's expertise in extracting crude oil, even from the most hostile environments, make for a potent combination, one that ultimately is at odds with Kyoto's anti carbon focus.

Further complicating the business at hand in Marrakech is the US-led war on terrorism. Responding to the attacks of September 11 has so preoccupied Washington that the US delegation in Marrakech will not be presenting any plans to reduce greenhouse gases at home. What's more, the war could lead to increased strategic cooperation between Washington and Moscow. Neither Russia's geography nor its history allows it to be indifferent to terrorism based in the Middle East. In the rough and tumble world of geopolitics, priorities are subject to change. Pro-Kyoto Britain and anti-Kyoto America have put their differences on climate change aside and joined forces against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Moscow, too, is in the midst of reordering its priorities. In any event, the Russians will have a strong hand to play at Marrakech.

Bonner R. Cohen is a senior fellow at the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Virginia.