UNITED
NATIONS - It seems sometimes that virtually everything
in the stores nowadays bears the message "Made
in China." The World Trade Organization
confirms that this is no illusion. China, which
finally
joined the agency last year after a hard fight
to get onboard, is the only one of the major
trading nations that increased exports during
2001 -- by
a robust 7 percent. As a result, the world's
most populous nation moved into fourth position
among
exporters, displacing Canada.
For
most everybody else, especially Americans, 2001
was not a good year. It got worse after Sept. 11,
with the US experiencing a decline of about 6 percent
in trade in the last quarter, WTO says. Its new
report on international trade warns that a recovery
in the same order of 6 percent -- not seen so far
-- will be needed to restore growth in 2002.
"World merchandise
trade is expected to
expand only marginally
on a year-to-year basis," according
to the agency, which
also cautions against
false expectations
of a certain, strong
rebound. This because
of what it terms the "sober
prospects" for
the depressed information
technology sector.
This industry's collapse
is bad news for the
UN, which has been
trying desperately
to enlist IT in the
cause of sustainable
development in the
poorest countries,
like those of Africa.
Kofi Annan often mentions
that millions upon
millions of their citizens
have never made or
received a telephone
call, let alone seen
or touched a computer
keyboard.
World exports dropped
1 percent in volume
last year and by 4
percent in value, to
$6 trillion, WTO reports.
It forecasts a lousy
1 percent recovery
in 2002.
The decline in export
volume followed a 12
percent increase in
2000 and was the largest
recorded annual decrease
since 1982, with all
three major merchandise
product groups -- farm
products, mining and
manufactures -- hit
by it.
Three factors played
a big part in a global
downturn that was rougher
than expected: the
bursting of the IT
bubble; sluggish demand
in Western Europe;
and -- to a lesser
extent -- the impact
of Sept. 11. Significantly,
regions and countries
that recorded the largest
decline in their exports
were those that traded
intensively in IT products,
namely the US and East
Asia. Singapore and
Taiwan suffered an
unprecedented fall
in exports and output.
The least-developed
countries' exports
and imports stagnated
in 2001.
On a more optimistic
note, WTO says it expects
world trade to recover
from here on in (i.e.,
after the first quarter
of 2002), driven initially
by a need to rebuild
inventory. But, for
the second year in
a row, growth in world
trade still will lag
behind the expansion
of global output, the
report adds.
Advocates of the economic
interests of developing
countries often complain
about the effects of
the commodity prices
yo-yo, but WTO says
this has become much
less important in determining
the export earnings
of developing countries
as a group, though
a decline in importance
did differ widely among
regions. Africa, it's
acknowledged, still
relies on commodities
for 80 percent of merchandise
exports.
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