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The Earth Times | Posted May 15, 2002



UN Notebook: China's boom year was a bust for US
BY MICHAEL LITTLEJOHNS
Copyright © 2002 by The Earth Times. All rights reserved

UNITED NATIONS - It seems sometimes that virtually everything in the stores nowadays bears the message "Made in China." The World Trade Organization confirms that this is no illusion. China, which finally joined the agency last year after a hard fight to get onboard, is the only one of the major trading nations that increased exports during 2001 -- by a robust 7 percent. As a result, the world's most populous nation moved into fourth position among exporters, displacing Canada.

For most everybody else, especially Americans, 2001 was not a good year. It got worse after Sept. 11, with the US experiencing a decline of about 6 percent in trade in the last quarter, WTO says. Its new report on international trade warns that a recovery in the same order of 6 percent -- not seen so far -- will be needed to restore growth in 2002.

"World merchandise trade is expected to expand only marginally on a year-to-year basis," according to the agency, which also cautions against false expectations of a certain, strong rebound. This because of what it terms the "sober prospects" for the depressed information technology sector.

This industry's collapse is bad news for the UN, which has been trying desperately to enlist IT in the cause of sustainable development in the poorest countries, like those of Africa. Kofi Annan often mentions that millions upon millions of their citizens have never made or received a telephone call, let alone seen or touched a computer keyboard.

World exports dropped 1 percent in volume last year and by 4 percent in value, to $6 trillion, WTO reports. It forecasts a lousy 1 percent recovery in 2002.

The decline in export volume followed a 12 percent increase in 2000 and was the largest recorded annual decrease since 1982, with all three major merchandise product groups -- farm products, mining and manufactures -- hit by it.

Three factors played a big part in a global downturn that was rougher than expected: the bursting of the IT bubble; sluggish demand in Western Europe; and -- to a lesser extent -- the impact of Sept. 11. Significantly, regions and countries that recorded the largest decline in their exports were those that traded intensively in IT products, namely the US and East Asia. Singapore and Taiwan suffered an unprecedented fall in exports and output.

The least-developed countries' exports and imports stagnated in 2001.

On a more optimistic note, WTO says it expects world trade to recover from here on in (i.e., after the first quarter of 2002), driven initially by a need to rebuild inventory. But, for the second year in a row, growth in world trade still will lag behind the expansion of global output, the report adds.

Advocates of the economic interests of developing countries often complain about the effects of the commodity prices yo-yo, but WTO says this has become much less important in determining the export earnings of developing countries as a group, though a decline in importance did differ widely among regions. Africa, it's acknowledged, still relies on commodities for 80 percent of merchandise exports.

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