Despite their importance
to all societies, there is little
understanding and considerable confusion
about population
trends and demographic dynamics.
This may be the result of complex explanations
filled with technical jargon. In
striking
contrast, almost everyone can follow
and easily understand weather forecasts,
which appear in daily newspapers
and are broadcast regularly on the
radio
and television. Perhaps it might
be helpful to present population trends
in a manner
similar to weather forecasts. Here
is one attempt to do just that.
.
Today,
world population has hit an all-time high of 6.2 billion
people. The record of six billion was set in 1999,
only 12 years after the earlier high of five billion
in 1987. Current demographic accumulation is 77 million
people per year, again lower than the record annual
high of 86 million reached at the end of the 1980s.
The general outlook for the world for tonight and the
next five decades is for persistent demographic accumulation,
especially in urban areas in the global South, declining
fertility trends, widespread aging, continuing broad
bands of migration streams and scattered mortality
disturbances. The current global forecast for the year
2050 is 9.3 billion people, but also possible is a
high of 10.9 billion or a low of 7.9 billion.
Reports
from national centers supplemented by computer
estimates show
a current global growth
rate of 1.2 percent, markedly lower than the all-time
record high of 2 percent set back in the late 1960s.
A more detailed look across the world map shows
considerable variability regionally and nationally
along with significant demographic turbulence in
some areas. Almost all of the global demographic
accumulation during the next five decades‹around
three billion people‹is expected to occur
in the Southern Hemisphere. This accumulation will
likely amount to an increase of 67 percent for
the less developed regions by mid century. Today,
six countries‹India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria,
Bangladesh and Indonesia‹account for half
of the world's yearly demographic accumulation.
India's annual accumulation, one-fifth of global
growth, is equal to the combined totals for China,
Pakistan and Nigeria.
In
contrast, most areas in the Northern Hemisphere
will see little
if any accumulation. And some places,
such as Italy, Germany, Japan and Russia, are likely
to experience demographic shortfalls. Notable exceptions,
however, are Australia, Canada and the United States,
which are expected to have demographic accumulations
of 30 to 40 percent by the end of the five decades,
due in large part to continuing streams of migration.
Fertility trends are headed downward in all regions.
A depressed fertility system‹below normal
replacement levels of two births per woman‹covers
44 percent of the world's population, with European
countries and Japan experiencing the lowest recorded
fertility levels, only 1.1 to 1.5 births per woman.
A reversal of these unseasonably low fertility
levels is unlikely during the next few decades.
While fertility remains high in most of Africa
and parts of Western and South Asia, these levels
are beginning to fall, especially in urban areas.
Scattered mortality disturbances, heavy at times,
will occur mainly in Africa and Asia. Isolated
disturbances will also occur in Eastern Europe.
Elevated levels of mortality will result in life
expectancies at birth stalling, or even falling
in some less developed countries. A rapidly moving,
high pressure HIV/AIDS epidemic is causing a mortality
tsunami, ravaging much of sub-Saharan Africa and
some parts of South and East Asia. Other areas
in Eastern Europe and Asia are now reported to
be reaching dangerously high levels and advisories
remain in effect everywhere.
Broad bands of migration streams, some undocumented,
will persist and possibly intensify. The streams
are moving primarily from the South in a northerly
direction and also from East to West. In addition,
there will be continued migration activity within
countries, with increasing numbers seeking shelter
in large cities, especially along the seacoasts.
As a result of falling fertility and increasing
longevity, a widespread aging front is rapidly
sweeping across the globe. This front, travelling
from West to East and beginning in Europe, will
result in extraordinary shifts in age structures
toward the elevated ages. The pressures from this
aging front are to precipitate political squalls.
They are also likely to produce unpleasant conditions,
such as higher retirement ages, lower social security
benefits and increased worker contributions. The
migration streams noted earlier are expected to
do little to reduce the pressures from the enormous
and rapidly expanding aging front.
The extended long-term forecast remains unsettled.
While the forecast for some areas is partly sunny,
scattered clouds are also forming on the horizon
due to intensifying aging, mortality disturbances
and migration streams.
Joseph Chamie is the Director of the United Nations
Population Division.
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