Just last week
the world marked the six-month
anniversary of the horrifying events
of Sept. 11 when the crisis of
Afghanistan came to Wall Street,
the Pentagon and a field in Pennsylvania.
This week's gathering in Monterrey
gives us a chance to reflect on
how to make the world a better
and safer place after Sept. 11.
The international community has
already acted strongly by confronting
terrorism directly and increasing
security. But we will not create
that better and safer world with
bombs or brigades alone. We will
not win the peace until we have
the foresight, courage and political
will to redefine the war.
Poverty
is the war we must fight. Developing countries are
leading the way. As African leaders are saying in the
New Partnership for African Development, "Across
the continent Africans declare that we will no longer
allow ourselves to be conditioned by circumstance.
We will determine our own destiny and call on the rest
of the world to complement our efforts." But they
cannot do it alone. There is also a need for leadership
in the developed world which must grasp the opportunity
presented in Monterrey to take the next important step
to create that more stable and peaceful world. What
is it that leaders in rich countries should do? Rich
nations must level the playing field by opening their
markets for imports from developing countries. The
European Union's lead on the Everything But Arms Agreement
should be followed by others and the benefits should
be extended to all low income countries now to end
the trade barriers that harm the poorest nations and
poorest workers. This action does not need to wait
on WTO agreement. Of course, there will be powerful
political lobbies ranged against any such action. But
it is the task of political leaders to remind electorates
that lowering of trade barriers will not cost the rich
countries anything in the aggregate; they gain from
freer trade in these areas.
Rich nations must also cut agricultural subsidies.
Farm support goes mainly to a relatively small
number of agri-businesses, many of them large corporations,
and yet those subsidies are six times what the
rich countries provide in foreign aid to a developing
world that includes five billion people. There
are powerful political lobbies ranged against this
action too. But the fundamental truth is that agricultural
subsidies constitute a heavy burden on the citizens
of developed countries. With skillful political
leadership they can be cut back. And reducing these
subsidies would have the additional benefit of
yielding significant budgetary savings for governments
of rich countries.
Rich
countries must also recognize that, even with
action on
trade, or agricultural subsidies,
there is still a fundamental need to boost resources
for developing countries. We estimate that it will
take on the order of an additional $40 to $60 billion
a year to reach the Millennium Development Goals‹roughly
a doubling of current aid flows‹to 0.5 percent
of GNP, still well below the 0.7 percent target
agreed to by global leaders years ago. Budgetary
realities may make it impossible to double aid
overnight. But if a "New Partnership" is
to work, we must commit to matching the efforts
of developing countries step by step with a phased-in
increase in aid, say an additional $10 billion
a year for the next five years; building to an
extra $50 billion a year in year five. As we in
the international development community‹international
institutions and bilateral agencies, governments
and nongovernmental organizations‹look to
the challenge before us, we must also learn from
the past.
For
too many poor people, the cold war years were
years when development
stalled or even reversed,
when monies were lent for the sake of politics,
not development. We must not forget that lesson.
But we have also seen great success and we can
build on that. Over the past 40 years, life expectancy
at birth in developing countries has increased
by 20 years, about as much as was achieved in all
of human history prior to the middle of the 20th
century. Over the past 30 years, illiteracy in
the developing world has been cut almost in half,
from 47 percent to 25 percent in adults. Over the
past 20 years, the absolute number of people living
on less than $1 a day, after rising steadily for
the previous 200 years, has for the first time
begun to fall, even as the world's population has
grown by 1.6 billion people. Driving much of this
progress has been an acceleration of growth rates
in the developing world‹more than doubling
the income of the average person living in developing
countries over the past 35 years.
These advances have not come by chance. They have
come by action, by developing countries themselves,
but also in partnership with the richer world and
international institutions, with civil society
and the private sector. I believe we have a greater
chance today than perhaps at any other time in
the last 50 years to win that war and forge that
new partnership for peace. Monterrey is an opportunity
to deepen that partnership and take concrete action
on trade and aid. We must not let this opportunity
pass.
James D. Wolfensohn is President of the World
Bank Group.
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