In June, the two US officials proffered
mailed fists in velvet gloves but the fact
is that Washington is a novice in the labyrinthine
world of South and Central Asian politics
and a newcomer to the region. It has cunning
adversaries trained over centuries of survival
and manipulation of hegemonic powers.
Above all, Washington's diplomacy, however
muscular, skates on thin ice because it
has no reliable friend in mainland Asia.
The current nuclear stand-off between India
and Pakistan presents a historic opportunity
for the US to enter Asia on a sure footing,
by overturning 40 years of suspicion and
chill in its relationship with India. Without
friendship with India, Washington will
never have solid enough foundations in
mainland Asia to constructively channel
China's ambitions and emerging power. It
cannot earn India's friendship without
picking up the pieces of its half-century
of troubled relationship with Delhi, to
build new trust. Nor can it successfully
fight global terrorism growing out of Pakistan's
clandestine religious and military academies
without addressing India's concerns.
Whatever the rhetoric from Delhi and Islamabad,
the Bush administration has to very quickly
make a critical choice which will affect
its long term presence in mainland Asia.
The choice is not just one among personalities,
strategic imperatives or fighting terrorism.
It is about the vision and fundamental
values for which the US will stand in Asia
for the foreseeable future.
The battlegrounds of Europe were silenced
because the US steadfastly worked towards
specific ideals. The battlegrounds of Asia
are in the process of waking up, in their
turn after Europe. Washington can, if it
so wishes, pre-empt those battles by making
the right choices, now. This is a time
for bold moves to build friendship because
some of tomorrow's battles may cross the
nuclear threshold.
If Washington plays its cards skillfully,
the Armitage and Rumsfeld visits could
be the start of a new relationship with
India that should bring very significant
gains for America's role in Asia in coming
years. The US is isolated in Asia because
of Washington's overwhelming preoccupation
with Western Europe, first because of the
Cold War and afterwards because of the
risk of political chaos at the West's doorstep
in Russia and in Central and East Europe.
Mainland Asia got low priority, except
during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan
and periodic attempts to constructively
engage China.
India got little attention because of
its poverty, complexity and marginal significance
for the Cold War. No US President visited
India for 21 years until 2000, when Bill
Clinton's candor and friendly charm swept
Indians off their feet. Until that time,
India was seen mainly as an occasional
nuisance because of its saber-rattling
at Pakistan or a stubborn sermonizer disconnected
from political realities at international
meetings. Those perceptions softened in
the final decade of the last century but
India remained an irritating critic much
like France of emerging US leadership in
the post Cold War world order.
India is far from being a natural ally
of America in Asia, but it is the only
country in the world outside the West that
has a solid democracy and deep commitment
to human rights, multicultural secularism
and the fundamental values that Washington
stands for in global politics. Indians
are brittle, proud and stubborn with a
sense of their manifest destiny in world
affairs, just like Americans. What separates
India from America is poverty, poor governance,
indiscipline and some traditional cultural
traits.
However, there is enough convergence on
fundamentals to make those shortcomings
manageable, if there is sufficient political
will.
A good starting point is to recognize
that India's democratic politics are every
bit as complex and venal as America's and
require similar pork barrel bargaining
and give and take. So Washington must learn
to deal with India as it does with European
democracies rather than the way it handles
kingdoms or military regimes, which unlike
India can get things done through fiat,
repression or police actions.
India was traumatized and fell into Soviet
hands after the USS Enterprise appeared
outside Dhaka during the 1971 war with
East Pakistan, which created Bangladesh.
Most Indian leaders and strategists became
convinced that the US might one day become
India's enemy in its desire to control
the South Asian region and seas. Since
that time, no Indian government has been
able to extend a genuine hand of friendship
to Washington without risking the wrath
of nationalists.
Now, Washington has the chance to set
things rights once and for all. A nationalist
government in Delhi is seeking a hand of
friendship to ensure the survival of the
young Indian nation. India was born as
an ideal in 1947 to demonstrate that, in
a world consumed by tribal, ethnic and
religious hatreds, a poor, technologically
deprived and colonial people of enormous
diversity can live together as a true democracy
and multicultural, multiethnic and multi-religious
federation.
Pakistan's bloody determination to snatch
Indian Kashmir by hook or crook is a lance
into the core of India's heart as a nation.
It is worth remembering that colonial India
was a conglomeration of nearly 500 princely
states that paid tribute to the British
overlords, who did little more than prevent
war among the princes and collect taxes
from each village for the enrichment of
the people of the British Isles. After
250 years of foreign domination, independent
India is a fragile and unprecedented experiment
of coexistence among disparate groups crowded
into a single subcontinent. The experiment
is a work in progress and groans at the
edges from time to time, but it is unique
because no country has tried to keep so
many diverse peoples together within one
set of laws, social codes and business
practices.
As Indian and Pakistani missiles target
one another, at stake is not Kashmir but
the concepts that the new Indian nation
embodies. What will become of India's 120
million Muslims, if terrorists or Pakistan's
tactical nuclear weapons grab India's Jammu
and Kashmir state for the sole reason that
85% of the people on half of that state's
territory are Muslim? Is it reasonable
to expect that 80% of India's population,
who are descendants of Hindus ruled for
1,400 years by Muslims or Christians, will
turn the other cheek after having tasted
freedom for 55 years?
Pakistan is buffeted by fanatics longing
to become martyrs to Allah, who are enraged
at President Musharraf's ingratitude because
he owes his rise to power to their sympathizers
in Pakistan's armed forces and Islamic
establishment. They accuse General Musharraf
of betraying the Pakistan-trained Taliban
zealots, dethroned by the US in Afghanistan,
and Al-Qaeda fighters who moved freely
between friendly Pakistan and hospitable
Afghanistan. Pakistan's mullahs also feel
betrayed because they spent the past 25
years brainwashing young men, with the
Pakistani military's help, to believe that
fighting a suicidal jihad in Indian Kashmir
would open the embrace of at least 70 virginal
beauties per martyr in paradise.
To demonstrate their power inside Pakistan,
some of those fanatics from the Sunni branch
of Islam killed more than 30 people in
suicidal attacks within Pakistan and some
60 people in Indian Kashmir in May and
June 2002. As a result, all US diplomatic
offices were closed down in Pakistan and
all American diplomats and nationals quit
the country. The families of almost all
Western nationals also left Pakistan and
many left India in fear of war. India is
in the hands of leaders who remember the
horrors of the partition of British India
in 1947 and seem determined to conduct
a decisive war to convince Pakistan that
it cannot snatch territory from India in
any manner, whether through terrorism,
war or negotiations.
Afghanistan, where the US is heavily involved
continues to be unstable despite the new
government installed after the Loya Jirga
in June 2002. Al Qaeda remains operational
and may have split into groups with new
names, while Osama Bin Laden and the Taliban's
Mullah Omar are thought to be still at
large.
Thus,
the American
presence in Pakistan
and Afghanistan has many resolute enemies.
China is watching America's intrusive
political and
military operations
in its neighborhood
with increasing trepidation and may not
standby idly for long. It may find it
hard
to accept that the US dominates Pakistan's
generals who have been China's loyal
friends for decades.
During the last
15 years,
those generals have owed much more to
Beijing than
to Washington,
which imposed
several
embargos while Beijing supplied missiles,
nuclear weapons and military technology
without attaching onerous strings. >From
Washington, Pakistan's generals expect
gratitude because they buried the hatchet
in America's hour of need after September
11. They did so in spite of being pushed
aside without a word of thanks for all
the sacrifices they made for the US during
its proxy war with the Soviet Union in
Afghanistan.
Towards
Beijing, those
generals
feel gratitude
because its conventional military supplies
help to make them India's equals in the
last decade. Chinese nuclear weapons and
missiles have also deterred India from "teaching
Pakistan a lesson" since the military
build up of December 2001. In effect, Beijing
has helped the generals to stay in control
of Pakistan because a defeat at Indian
hands or the loss of even a small amount
of territory to India could forever shatter
the military's 45-year-old grip over Islamabad.
Controlling Islamabad has considerably
enriched the generals; the military currently
operates some two-thirds of Pakistan's
large enterprises. Against this background,
Washington holds the keys to peace between
India and Pakistan. It can decide to persuade
Pakistan's generals that their Chinese
weapons will not deter India from fighting
a war to end their rule in Islamabad, if
they continue to send terrorists across
the border. Or it can decide to soft-pedal
the issue in the belief that India is bluffing
to coerce Pakistan through Washington to
stop terrorism. Or Washington can help
Delhi now as an act of friendship because
it realizes that India is worth preserving
because it is the only power outside Europe
whose fundamental ideals and values converge
with those of America.