Prior
to the events of September
11, the Bush administration
had started to chart
a clear-cut course in
South Asia. In this new
foreign policy calculus,
India, the largest and
most powerful economically
dynamic, politically
stable and strategically
significant state in
the region was destined
to emerge as a linchpin.
Such a shift was possible
because unlike a range
of other American administrations,
both during and after
the Cold War, The George
W. Bush regime had finally
decided that Pakistan
could no longer exercise
a unit veto on American
relations with India.
Such a decision was also
made possible because
of Pakistan's steady
downward economic spiral,
the presence of a Pakistani
military dictatorship
in a democratizing Asia
and also because of Pakistan's
extensive strategic links
with the loathsome Taliban
regime in Afghanistan.
Few American interests,
it appeared were implicated
in that country.
Simultaneously,
India, which had almost reflexively opposed virtually
any major American foreign policy initiative appeared
to be changing its orientation. The Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) led regime in India was demonstrating a
degree of intellectual flexibility that few regimes
in India had ever displayed. Specifically, the BJP-led
regime had expressed cautious support for the Bush
administration's decision to amend the Anti-Ballistic
Missile (ABM) treaty and move toward dramatic cuts
in the American nuclear arsenal. Admittedly, the Indian
endorsement of the American position was anything but
fulsome. Nevertheless, even this limited embrace of
an otherwise controversial American strategic shift
was quite significant. At another level, unlike many
previous regimes, the BJP-led government appeared much
more inclined to broaden and deepen military to military
contacts with the United States. Even areas of disagreement
in Indo-U.S. relations such as those dealing with trade
and investment regimes no longer appeared as acrimonious.
These areas of convergence in Indo-U.S. relations
have not entirely dissipated after the events
of September 11, 2002. However, the clear-cut
upswing that was under way has been stunted.
After September 11, courting Pakistan has taken
on renewed significance in American foreign policy
calculations. This renewal has emerged as a direct
consequence, ironically enough, because of the
General Musharraf's dictatorship's close ties
to the now-decimated Taliban regime and also
because of Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda's ties
to segments of Pakistani society and its military.
Bluntly put, without Pakistan's cooperation,
however grudging, the United States simply cannot
hope to sunder the tentacles of terror that engulfed
New York and Washington, DC that as September
morning. More to the point, those very links
may once again re-generate themselves with the
aid and connivance of their Pakistani sympathizers.
In
pursuing this new relationship with Pakistan
clearly American
policymakers did not wish to
either fundamentally alienate India and its policymakers.
To this end, after September 11, the dexterous
and smooth-talking American ambassador to New
Delhi, Robert Blackwill, sought to allay long-held
Indian fears about an American "tilt" toward
Pakistan. Blackwill's efforts in New Delhi were
proceeding apace quite nicely when two Pakistan-based
and supported terrorist groups, the Jaish-e-Mohammed
and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, who had long been wreaking
havoc in the disputed state of Kashmir, launched
a brazen attack on the Indian parliament on December
13. Fortunately, through mixture of the quick
reflexes of a lowly parliamentary guard and a
change in the meeting schedule, the bloody attack
ended with a minimum loss of innocent lives.
Cell phone records obtained from the terrorists
who were all killed in the ensuing gun-battle
left little doubt about their provenance.
Unable
to continue to duck the responsibility for
the murderous
activities of these two groups
from his own social and faced with unrelenting
American, Indian and indeed global pressure,
General Musharraf reluctantly shut down the visible
operations of these two organizations as he also
proceeded to detail hundreds of other Islamic
radicals who had thrived amidst the collapse
of Pakistan's socio-economic fabric. Nevertheless,
no doubt in a nod to the more intransigent elements
within his own society not to mention the behemoth
military, Musharraf refused to put an end to
his country's support for the Kashmiri "freedom
fighters", a convenient euphemism for various
condotierri still coddled and cared for by the
Inter Services Intelligence Directorate of the
Pakistani Army.
Now that Musharraf has pursued 's limited crackdown
on the Islamic radicals within his country the
United States is now urging India to move the
troops that it has massed along the Indo-Pakistani
border to induce Pakistan to end its support
to the terrorists in Kashmir. Such an expectation
is not merely unrealistic but also disingenuous.
The Indians had few viable options but to resort
to a strategy of coercive diplomacy to change
the feckless behavior of the Pakistani regime
on the Kashmir question. They will, perforce,
have to maintain this pressure to ensure that
Pakistan finally abandons its mindless support
to groups that neither represent the aggrieved
Kashmiris nor hold out the promise of a just,
fair and negotiated settlement to the long-festering
dispute. Any other American policy runs the risk
of not only alienating South Asia's most powerful
nation but also promises the prolongation of
the agony of Kashmir. Worse still, such a policy
would also simply prolong the American-led war
against terrorism as the groups Musharraf appears
intent on supporting are no different from those
that tore down the World Trade Center Towers
on that fateful September morning.
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