Now
that Time Magazine has bestowed its annual "person
of the year" accolade on Rudolph Giuliani,
it may seem untimely but it's entirely relevant
to ask: whither Rudy?
He
is going out, with the Old Year, as mayor of New
York
City, and because his performance since the Sept. 11
attacks on the World Trade Center have made him "America's
Mayor," it's interesting to wonder where he goes
from here.
That excellent example of leadership in
crisis seems to have caused some to forget
that before Sept. 11, Mayor Giuliani was
widely regarded as overbearing, none to sympathetic
to certain minorities, a little too eager
for publicity, antipathetic to some forms
of freedom of expression, and prone both
to resent criticism and to dish it out to
those who disagreed with him.
That's not
to say that Giuliani definitely was or
did all of those things, but that
some of his actions in eight years as mayor
and before that as a federal prosecutor --
caused people to regard him in a dim light.
Even he, in a sort of farewell address in
New York, referred to the "old Rudy
and the new Rudy" (apparently meaning
the pre- and post-Sept. 11 Rudies). It's
not likely that the elements that made up
the "old Rudy" have entirely disappeared
though some may well have been softened as
a result of the terrorist attacks and his
highly praised response to them.
It tends to be forgotten, too, that Giuliani
is not exactly a poster boy to a number of
New York Republicans, possibly including
Governor George Pataki. Though Giuliani has
always borne the Republican party label,
he once thought it his duty as mayor of the
city to support Mario Cuomo, the Democratic
governor of the state, in Cuomo's re-election
campaign against a Republican you guessed
it, George Pataki.
That political switch may have made sense
in terms of city-state relations. To the
state's Republicans, particularly those who
were contributing the party's funds, it was
a turncoat performance not to be forgotten
in future Giuliani campaigns. Not a few political
analysts in New York believe that Pataki
is among those who have neither forgotten
nor forgiven the mayor.
All this may have more relevance to the
new Rudy's future than a Time Magazine cover
story. As he yields his office to Michael
Bloomberg, Giuliani is a man with a glowing
(recent) reputation and an uncertain but
intriguing political future.
He withdrew last year, owing to prostate
cancer, from a Senate race he might conceivably
have won. But his brief campaign provided
ample opportunities for observers to wonder
out loud if a man of action, and a compulsive
take-charge leader, would make a good Senator,
or even be happy in the world's most exclusive
club. There, he would be only one of 100,
junior for years, restricted to committee
activity, and probably none too adept at
the back scratching and vote-swapping tactics
of legislative achievement.
Besides,
there’s no reason to suppose
that either of the Senate seats now held
by Hilary Clinton and Charles Schumer will
come open in time to be available to Giuliani,
even if he could, or wanted to try, to win
one of them. And despite Ms. Clinton's example
in New York, few other states would be likely
to welcome even "America's Mayor" as
a carpet-bagging Senate or congressional
candidate.
So if Congress seems unlikely, Giuliani
may well be considering other goals such
as the governorship of New York state, if
it were to be opened by Pataki's retirement
or acceptance of a federal appointment. In
view of those long memories of Giuliani's
past Republican apostasy, he would be unlikely
and perhaps unwise to mount an insurgency
against Pataki. And even if Albany should
come open for another Republican, those memories
not to mention a strong Democratic opponent
might make his election difficult.
That leaves, of course, federal appointment.
Normally, with a Republican in the White
House that might be Giulian's best recourse.
But President Bush already has passed up
(if he even considered) a chance to put America's
Mayor in a place he might well have filled
with distinction as head of the Federal Bureau
of Investigation.
Bush, moreover, is a first-termer who all
but certainly will seek reelection in 2004.
Why should he appoint a Time Magazine honoree,
a national television star, and a man with
sudden name and face recognition all across
America, to a place in which he might make
a further reputation for himself and exploit
that never-sated appetite for publicity?
Senator John McCain already looks like a
possible primary opponent for Bush next time
around. What does the President need with
another potential challenger?
It's probably
not lost on the White House that Rudolph
Giuliani's new popularity, now
that he's leaving office, is likely to last
beyond the current "war on terrorism," while
the President's high poll standing conceivably
could fade with events just as his father's
91 percent approval rating in 1991, after
his Gulf War victory, trickled down into
defeat by Bill Clinton in 1992.
It's possible, of course, that Bush might
calculate that the best way to keep the new
Rudy from jumping the team is to put him
officially on it, with a sort of preventive
appointment, maybe to the Cabinet or to some
distant foreign post. But either way in the
tent looking out, or outside looking in Bush
shouldn't count out a man who seems to have
nowhere to go but up.
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