Two
years ago in Seattle violent protests disrupted
a World Trade Organization meeting. Last year in
Davos, over-zealous security precautions riled
the World Economic Forum. This year in New York,
the dark shadows of three traumatic events hung
over the transplanted Forum:
The
attacks of Sept. 11 and the resulting "war on
terrorism."
President Bush's State of the Union address,
seeming to foreshadow a new unilateralism
in the American world outlook.
The collapse of Enron.
The
last of these probably did not "change
everything" as many believe the terrorist
attacks did, and might not have the long-term
significance for the world of a U. S. "go
it alone" approach.
At the moment, however, the fall of the
seventh-largest American corporation into
bankruptcy, disgrace and possible criminal
liability may have been the worst shock to
American complacency since the Great Depression,
confirming old suspicions, undermining new
certainties, angering not just Enron's victimized
workers, pensioners and shareholders but
a wide spectrum of the uninvolved public.
For
the political and economic leaders from
abroad who had
gathered in New York for the
World Economic Forum, the Enron spectacle
dominated headlines, news broadcasts and
private conversation. The sordid story is
bound to have diminished their confidence
in America's governing and regulatory processes,
perhaps in its investment possibilities,
and in the touted "new economy" of
which the failed company was believed to
be the star.
For
millions of Americans, at least for those
of a certain
age, the economic "ground
zero" surrounding the shell of Enron,
revived ancient suspicions of the honesty
and intentions of "big business," big
banks, big lawyers, big money suspicions
never entirely erased by the prosperity and
stock-market "exuberance" of recent
years.
Enron's
fall symbolically if not actually
as horrific as the collapse of the World
Trade Center towers fanned the equally
persistent belief that business interests,
with their lavish campaign contributions
and lobbying expenditures, are able to "buy" a
corrupt political process that, so far from
guarding the public interest, promotes private
greed.
The
spectacular demise of a company once considered
a model
for the economic future,
and the apparent complicity of its hired
auditors and attorneys they can be
bought too -- may even prove a caution to
those eager to rely on "the market" alone,
for everything from riches to retirement.
Finally, the spectacle of Enron executives
making a killing in stock sales while their
employees lost everything, must have re-enforced
the nearly theological conviction of many
here and abroad that the wealthy and powerful
are moved mainly by greed, and lack essential
concern for the world's less fortunate millions.
Even
the press, which likes to regard itself
as
a "watchdog" of the public interest,
mostly cheered on Enron until Gotterdamerung
arrived, rather than questioning and investigating
what , in retrospect, looks like a house
of cards. And what about those "experts" who
advised buying Enron stock even after those
who knew better were bailing out?
Enron's
failure, dramatic as it was, could not
entirely
overshadow, however, the World
Economic Forum's more accustomed agenda -
the problems of rich and poor nations in
trying to make "globalization" work
for all.
On
that front, too, with the world economy including
that of the United States --in slowdown,
the news was mostly bad.
Forum-goers had to face the facts that after
growing throughout the Nineties, global trade
slumped to virtual stagnation in 2001. Foreign
investment declined to barely half that of
the year 2000. Argentina defaulted on its
$155 billion debt, though it had abolished
trade barriers, opened its capital markets
and welcomed foreign investors. On top of
the Sept. 11 terrorist shocks, numerous speakers
suggested that these developments might have
signaled a practical end to globalization.
Security concerns, following Sept. 11, certainly
will not help matters. Higher insurance premiums
are certain; longer border delays and higher
transportation costs are likely. The movements
of peoples, particularly out of underdeveloped
nations, will be more restricted. The World
Bank has estimated that air freight costs
alone have risen by about 15 percent since
Sept. 11. Tourism, a mainstay for many developing
economies, has been hard hit. On the other
hand, a U. N. survey showed that 70% of those
responding expected a rise in investment
and employment in their foreign operations
over the next three years.
Global
integration, however, has always been uneven
and nothing
said at the WEF suggested
much change. A World Bank study found that
24 nations with 3 billion people, including
China, Argentina, Brazil, India and the Philippines,
have improved growth rates in the last 20
years, while their poverty rates declined.
But another 2 billion people were found to
be living in countries including much
of Africa -- that have become less "globalized,
with diminishing trade, stagnant growth rates,
rising poverty and falling income per person.
A
major problem facing the underdeveloped
world is the
reluctance of the wealthy United
States to increase its foreign-aid level,
now the lowest of any industrialized nation.
U. S. aid now totals only a tenth of one
percent of gross domestic product, with much
of that meager sum devoted to Israel; and
the political prospect for a more generous
approach is all but non-existent, given the
lukewarm attitude of the Bush Administration.
At the WEF, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill
frequently indicated that he does not favor
an increase in aid until he sees concrete
evidence such as rising living standards that
aid is working actually to help developing
nations. That evidence is scarce, so world
aid levels are not likely to increase if
the wealthiest of nations refuses to show
the way.
Even
more ominous are population projections.
In
the next 20 years, total world population
may decline slightly, but 2 billion more
people will be living in the developing world,
many of them in countries that now would
have to be rated economic failures. Unless
these nations can somehow be brought into
the international economy, their population
increases alone will render true "globalization" all
but hopeless.
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