Wars
over ownership of fresh water sources and rivers
are already underway in several parts of the world
and deserts are expanding, while people argue about
how to deal with water conservation and the importance
of fresh water in geopolitics
The
most prominent dispute involving ownership of water
is the one between Israel and Palestine. When Israel
expanded its frontiers into the West Bank and the Golan
Heights in 1967, it took possession of the region's
major water sources. It is true that those sources
had long been taken for granted and neglected before
Israel's take over and the current conflict is about
terrorism rather than economic issues. But past peace
contacts between Syria and Israel have floundered over
tiny swathes of territory important for underground
waterways and fresh water remains an issue.
India, which helped
East Pakistan to win
independence to become
Bangladesh in 1971,
is still embroiled
in bitter disputes
with that new nation
over river basins and
waterways. Some Indians
see the disputes as
crass ingratitude by
the Bangladesh government
and people, but the
other side sees fresh
water rights as vital
for its survival.
The Economic Commission
for Europe did some
of its best work through
the worst years of
the Cold War in securing
agreements on sharing
the Danube River between
West and East European
neighbors across the
then iron curtain.
That work continues
with various projects
to use that river for
transport and combined
efforts to remove pollution,
especially after NATO's
recent war to save
Kosovo.
We may be headed towards
an epoch when water
will be no less precious
for human progress
than petroleum is today.
One of the positive
fallouts of the war
in Afghanistan is expected
to be the linkage through
new pipelines of the
vast oil and natural
gas fields of Kazakistan,
Ubekistan, Tajikistan
and south east China
to outlets in the Arabian
sea.
Kandahar, now the
scene of desolation,
may grow into a humming
metropolis with the
only airport in the
region with easy access
to Central Asia. A
few highways, airports
and transit revenues
from oil and gas transportation
across its territories
could make Afghanistan's
destitution a thing
of the past. All it
takes is 10-15 years
of intelligent effort
by people of goodwill
to transform the region
from Afghanistan, across
Pakistan and through
to Eastern India.
The Reliance company,
by some estimates India's
largest private sector
conglomerate, is already
building a multibillion
dollar petrochemical
complex in the Rann
of Kutch, north of
Bombay, and just a
short distance from
Pakistan's border.
Investors, including
US collaborators, in
the complex would not
have taken such enormous
risks without a conviction
that India and Pakistan
will not self-destruct
through war despite
their current rhetoric
over Kashmir.
Russia is keen to
develop peaceful collaboration
with the European Union
and NATO partly because
it would like to provide
secure and long-term
supplies of oil and
natural gas to the
West. Some experts
think that Russia can
win half of West Europe's
markets within 20 years
if the political relationships
can be managed successfully
and Russia becomes
more of a law-abiding
democracy.
It is not fanciful
to think that within
30 years nations will
collaborate to conserve
and transport fresh
water, like they do
currently for oil and
gas. Delhi in India
is likely to run out
of groundwater as early
as 2015 and two thirds
of China's cities already
suffer water shortages.
By some estimates,
Lake Chad has shrunk
by 95% in the past
four decades. That
is a dramatic tragedy
for 20 million people
living in the six countries
sharing the lake's
shores.
In fact, there is
no shortage of fresh
water supplies on earth.
The natural filtration
system of the oceans
rising into the air
and returning to land
as fresh water works
marvelously well. But
fresh water distribution
is very uneven and
the world's poorest
countries have been
dealt the worst hands.
To bring more equity
to fresh water availability,
humans may have to
help rain bearing clouds
through water transportation
systems on earth. We
will also have to make
that fresh water more
accessible to the neediest.
We take water for
granted and people
in the West have access
to 150 liters of water
each day, compared
with people in some
developing countries
who survive on just
a bucket a day. Despite
its high mountains,
Afghanistan has suffered
severe drought for
nearly four years and
some villagers in the
Rajasthan and Gujarat
states of India, 500
miles away, have been
reduced to starvation
rations by droughts
of various levels of
severity for nearly
15 years.
Meanwhile,
countries stretching
from Indonesia
and Bangladesh to the
Caribbean and Florida
face typhoons and hurricanes
each year. Water seems
to be such a simple
and familiar matter.
Over 90% of our bodies
are made up of fluids,
but almost nothing
seems to be more complex
than water. Understanding
it involves leading
edge science is such
mysterious areas as
climates made tens
of thousands of kilometers
above the earth's surface
and underground flows
hidden tens of kilometers
beneath our feet.
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