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Web Reviews

The Earth Times | Posted December 28, 2001




Technology

Goodbye to “free lunch” on the web in 2002
> BY WARREN SULLIVAN
Copyright © 2002 by The Earth Times. All rights reserved

The verdict is in. Web users ignore advertising on most web sites. Banners designed to attract your attention don’t. Advertisers hoping you will click on their ads have received your message loud and clear and they no longer spend their advertising budget on the web. The result is that many of your favorite sites that rely on advertising revenue will either go out of business or must find other ways to get the revenue needed keep on going.

The whole structure of the World Wide Web was originally based on the easy and free availability of information. Ten years ago scientists and engineers wanted to be able to share information with each other in real time. The Internet had existed for some time and connected most of their offices but exchanging documents and pictures was a tedious process. Then in 1991 HyperText Transfer Protocol, known as http, was developed. That protocol formed the basis for the World Wide Web.

Shortly after the advent of http came another development now known as HyperText Markup Language or html. It’s the language that controls the stuff that comes in to your computer over the Internet and ends up in your browser. There it tells Internet Explorer or Netscape browsers where to place the text and images on your screen. It was html and the early Mosaic browser that turned the Internet scientists had conceived into a tool that anyone with a PC or a Mac could use to view a web site. Today there are more than 11 million publicly available web sites to visit.

The 5-year history and spectacular growth of the web since browsers were given away free, can be sliced into periods that define its behavior. It started with the rude Wild Wild West period with an “anything goes” attitude and glides fitfully into today’s quagmire of dot com failures.

WWW stands for Wild Wild West … it wasn’t long after free web browsers from Netscape were downloaded by the millions that anyone with the desire to have a web site could create one. And build them they did. It was a period without rules, not even common courtesy. Pornography flourished and “surfing” the web to find “cool” stuff became a habit for millions of people worldwide. It wasn’t pretty but it proved that a new communication media had arrived and had been embraced by the masses.

The entrepreneurial invasion … as the web grew, and grew, and grew some more there was an irresistible attraction to making money in a whole new way. Every sort of trinket and trash was for sale. New small companies opened whole new enterprises that flourished. Think of E-Bay auctions and Monster.com the mammoth job search site. Larger traditional companies started to use web sites as information portals, essentially putting existing brochures and contact information on the web. The web was edging its way toward e-commerce.

The dot com storm … some of the small companies on the web were attracting millions of visitors a day. Some were selling goods and services and others providing information and entertainment. Big companies could no longer treat the web as a passing phenomenon; they felt the scrappy web entrepreneurs threatened their marketplace. They responded with big budget web sites and many relied on the advertising model as a way of defraying the costs. These sites received lots of visitors who would read banner ads, click on them and be sent to the advertisers web page. The advertiser paid for the ad and received potential customers in return. But…

Advertising doesn’t work … 2001 saw the beginning of the end of the web advertising business model. Even though many web sites had large streams of visitors daily, the visitors carefully avoided the advertising banners, pop-up screens and other annoying tricks. They did not click on the ads and quick as a wink advertising budgets dried up. The dot com storm was over and thousands of sites disappeared along with tens of thousands of employees. 2002 will see the end of many more web sites that relied on advertising unless they can find other ways of creating a revenue stream.

The search for income … those web sites that want to stay in business will have to find a way to pay for the privilege. With the dot com period gone and web ad budgets decimated, venture capital headed for greener pastures. No longer could money be raised without a clear view of how the venture would make real and substantial profits. Without those resources there seems now to be only one last resort source of revenue. You guessed it. It’s you and me.

Ask yourself… would you pay to get your news, find information on search engines, and all the other benefits you derive from the web? For now your answer is probably… no way! But, you will be put to the test. Watch for the new term “micropayments” to creep up. Micropayments are based on the concept that if you were just charged a few cents each time you used a web site you would overlook the pain of having to pay. It would be like the telephone bill or the electric bill, you pay for what you use. Each little micropayment would be automatically accumulated to your account and every so often your credit card will be debited for the total.

Get used to it! Micropayments will probably be the replacement for the web equivalent of “free lunch”.

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