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The Earth Times | Posted December 3, 2001



Distant Rumbles Are Being Heard at COP-7
> BY BONNER R. COHEN
Copyright © 2002 by The Earth Times. All rights reserved

MARRAKECH, Morocco-No international meeting takes place in a political vacuum, and the UN-sponsored climate change conference in Marrakech is no exception.

By far the biggest distraction to the talks here is the US-led war on terrorism. It was a quirk of history that scheduled COP-7 in an Islamic country seven weeks after Osama bib Laden's terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Concerns about security in general, and about flying in particular, have greatly reduced the number NGOs attending the conference. Compared with earlier global warming conferences, NGO information booths are few and far between, and the crowded halls and stairways of COPs past are a distant memory. Industry, which had a strong presence in Kyoto, Buenos Aires, The Hague, and Bonn, is for the most part sitting this one out. Even the press center is devoid of the chaotic scenes that characterized past conferences. It actually resembles a humane place to work.

Those who stayed at home are being deprived of a well-run conference held in the beautiful surroundings that Marrakech offers. Security is tight but not overbearing, and the Moroccan hosts have outdone themselves with their hospitality. Cities contemplating building a conference center in the hope of attracting the multitudes can learn a lot from Marrakech. The conference center is a seven-minute drive from the airport and a short walk from several comfortable hotels. Food and drink - at reasonable prices - are readily available at the center, a welcome change for those with not-so-fond memories of the offerings in The Hague and Bonn.

On a substantive level, a myriad of groups and sub-groups are meeting in marathon sessions to hammer out language that would clarify the commitments made under the Bonn Agreement. Delegates report that little progress has been made in the key areas of mechanisms, compliance, and reporting on inventories.

Mechanisms refer to how the parties to the treaty will meet their greenhouse-gas emissions-reductions targets. The Bonn Agreement provides for more generous use of carbon sinks that will count as emissions credits. Under the Bonn Agreement, forests are by far the biggest sinks. Delegates are currently wrangling over how to account for afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation. The issue is of great importance to Russia whose abundant forests provide huge opportunities to store carbon, without having to fiddle too much with the country's sources of energy, which are based largely on fossil fuels. Little progress has been made thus far in sorting this out, and a joint Russian-Japanese press briefing scheduled for this morning (Nov. 6) was canceled.

An even bigger nut to crack is the subject of compliance. At issue is the creation of a mechanism to be respected by all parties to the treaty that will ensure their compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, including penalties for those who do not. The issue was papered over at Kyoto, and at Bonn - three-and-one half years later - it was finally decided that compliance would have to be seriously addressed at COP-7. But as with mechanisms, delegates have made little headway on compliance.

The same holds true for reporting on inventories of greenhouse-gas reductions, including credits for sinks or for emissions traded with other countries. The task is to ensure that the units being counted are the same from country to country. Failure to come up with common standards and procedures for reporting could lead to the age-old problem of comparing apples with oranges and undermine any serious effort at compliance with the mandates of the Kyoto Protocol.

Resolving these and other outstanding questions will have to await a series of high-level ministerial meetings set to get underway tomorrow. There is a pattern at COP meetings in which delegates become hopelessly deadlocked on a slew of issues. This is followed by last-minute intervention at the ministerial level (or by Vice President Al Gore at Kyoto) that at least gives the appearance that a consensus has been reached. The one exception was COP-6 at The Hague where acrimony between the US and the EU reached such a level that the talks collapsed.

At The Hague, and even more so at Bonn, the US was the designated "bad guy," to be bashed with impunity for its refusal to play the Kyoto game. Those tactics backfired in Bonn where the constant sniping at Washington only stiffened the Bush administration's resolve to reject the treaty. The events of September 11, and the ongoing war on terrorism, have put an end to the public back-biting over Kyoto - at least for now.

Bonner R. Cohen is a senior fellow at the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va.

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