MARRAKECH,
Morocco-No international meeting takes place in
a political vacuum, and the UN-sponsored climate
change conference in Marrakech is no exception.
By far
the biggest distraction to the talks here is the US-led
war on terrorism. It was a quirk of history that scheduled
COP-7 in an Islamic country seven weeks after Osama
bib Laden's terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.
Concerns about security in general, and about flying
in particular, have greatly reduced the number NGOs
attending the conference. Compared with earlier global
warming conferences, NGO information booths are few
and far between, and the crowded halls and stairways
of COPs past are a distant memory. Industry, which
had a strong presence in Kyoto, Buenos Aires, The Hague,
and Bonn, is for the most part sitting this one out.
Even the press center is devoid of the chaotic scenes
that characterized past conferences. It actually resembles
a humane place to work.
Those who stayed at
home are being deprived
of a well-run conference
held in the beautiful
surroundings that Marrakech
offers. Security is
tight but not overbearing,
and the Moroccan hosts
have outdone themselves
with their hospitality.
Cities contemplating
building a conference
center in the hope
of attracting the multitudes
can learn a lot from
Marrakech. The conference
center is a seven-minute
drive from the airport
and a short walk from
several comfortable
hotels. Food and drink
- at reasonable prices
- are readily available
at the center, a welcome
change for those with
not-so-fond memories
of the offerings in
The Hague and Bonn.
On a substantive level,
a myriad of groups
and sub-groups are
meeting in marathon
sessions to hammer
out language that would
clarify the commitments
made under the Bonn
Agreement. Delegates
report that little
progress has been made
in the key areas of
mechanisms, compliance,
and reporting on inventories.
Mechanisms refer to
how the parties to
the treaty will meet
their greenhouse-gas
emissions-reductions
targets. The Bonn Agreement
provides for more generous
use of carbon sinks
that will count as
emissions credits.
Under the Bonn Agreement,
forests are by far
the biggest sinks.
Delegates are currently
wrangling over how
to account for afforestation,
reforestation, and
deforestation. The
issue is of great importance
to Russia whose abundant
forests provide huge
opportunities to store
carbon, without having
to fiddle too much
with the country's
sources of energy,
which are based largely
on fossil fuels. Little
progress has been made
thus far in sorting
this out, and a joint
Russian-Japanese press
briefing scheduled
for this morning (Nov.
6) was canceled.
An even bigger nut
to crack is the subject
of compliance. At issue
is the creation of
a mechanism to be respected
by all parties to the
treaty that will ensure
their compliance with
the Kyoto Protocol,
including penalties
for those who do not.
The issue was papered
over at Kyoto, and
at Bonn - three-and-one
half years later -
it was finally decided
that compliance would
have to be seriously
addressed at COP-7.
But as with mechanisms,
delegates have made
little headway on compliance.
The same holds true
for reporting on inventories
of greenhouse-gas reductions,
including credits for
sinks or for emissions
traded with other countries.
The task is to ensure
that the units being
counted are the same
from country to country.
Failure to come up
with common standards
and procedures for
reporting could lead
to the age-old problem
of comparing apples
with oranges and undermine
any serious effort
at compliance with
the mandates of the
Kyoto Protocol.
Resolving these and
other outstanding questions
will have to await
a series of high-level
ministerial meetings
set to get underway
tomorrow. There is
a pattern at COP meetings
in which delegates
become hopelessly deadlocked
on a slew of issues.
This is followed by
last-minute intervention
at the ministerial
level (or by Vice President
Al Gore at Kyoto) that
at least gives the
appearance that a consensus
has been reached. The
one exception was COP-6
at The Hague where
acrimony between the
US and the EU reached
such a level that the
talks collapsed.
At
The Hague, and even
more so at Bonn,
the US was the designated "bad
guy," to be bashed
with impunity for its
refusal to play the
Kyoto game. Those tactics
backfired in Bonn where
the constant sniping
at Washington only
stiffened the Bush
administration's resolve
to reject the treaty.
The events of September
11, and the ongoing
war on terrorism, have
put an end to the public
back-biting over Kyoto
- at least for now.
Bonner R. Cohen is
a senior fellow at
the Lexington Institute
in Arlington, Va.
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