The Conference Board(R) Australia Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

NEW YORK, Oct. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Australia increased 1.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) declined 0.2 percent in August.

    -- The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased sharply in August, and
       there were upward revisions to the index in recent months, as actual
       data for the non-farm sales to inventories ratio for the second quarter
       became available.  In August, large positive contributions from
       building approvals, the yield spread, and stock prices more than offset
       the negative contribution from rural goods exports.  With the sharp
       gain in August, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index
       has continued to pick up, to 5.7 percent (about an 11.7 percent annual
       rate) for the period through August 2009 - the sharpest six-month
       increase since September 1997. Moreover, the strengths among the
       leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

    -- The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic
       activity, fell slightly in August -- its first decline since May last
       year. With this month's small decrease, the six-month growth rate of
       the coincident economic index has continued to slow, to 0.7 percent
       (about a 1.4 percent annual rate) during the period through August
       2009, down from 1.4 percent (about a 2.9 percent annual rate) for the
       previous six months.  However, the strengths among the coincident
       indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent
       months.  At the same time, real GDP increased at a 2.0 percent annual
       rate in the first half of 2009 (including a 2.5 percent annual rate in
       the second quarter), an improvement from the decline of 0.8 percent
       annual rate in the second half of 2008.

    -- After declining sharply in the second half of last year, The Conference
       Board LEI for Australia has been on a rising trend since the beginning
       of 2009 and its six-month growth rate has continued to accelerate.  The
       leading index has exceeded its previous peak, and is now 2.2 percent
       above its most recent high reached a year ago.  At the same time, The
       Conference Board CEI for Australia has continued to grow, but at a
       slower pace in recent months.  Taken together, the current behavior of
       the composite indexes suggests that the economy will continue to
       expand, albeit slowly in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in August. The positive contributors to the index -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are building approvals*, the sales to inventories ratio*, yield spread, share prices, and money supply*. Gross operating surplus* and rural goods exports* declined in August.

With the 1.8 percent increase in August, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 118.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.0 percent in July and increased 1.1 percent in June. During the six-month period through August, the leading economic index increased 5.7 percent, and five of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in August. The increases - in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - occurred in household gross disposable income* and industrial production*. Retail trade and employed persons declined in August.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 113.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in July and increased 0.1 percent in June. During the six-month period through August, the coincident economic index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on October 27, 2009. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

Effective with the February 26, 2009 release, the seasonally adjusted retail trade data replaced the trend estimated series, the publication of which was suspended by the Australia Bureau of Statistics.

                    Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

                                                2009                 6-month
                                     Jun       Jul       Aug        Feb to Aug
    Leading Economic Index          115.3 r   116.5 p   118.6 p
     Percent Change                   1.1 r     1.0 p     1.8 p         5.7
     Diffusion                       71.4      71.4      71.4          71.4

    Coincident Economic Index       113.4     113.4 p   113.2 p
     Percent Change                   0.1       0.0 p    -0.2 p         0.7
     Diffusion                       75.0      75.0      50.0          75.0

    n.a. Not available      p Preliminary      r Revised
    Indexes equal 100 in 2004
    Source: The Conference Board            All Rights Reserved

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (AEST)
In the U.S. - November 23, 2009 at 6:00 P.M. (EST)