Survey Finds 2009 Elections Color DC Elites' 2010 Outlook

A recent survey of Washington, DC policy shapers shows the Virginia and New Jersey governors' races are changing the way Washington insiders are looking at the 2010 midterm elections.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As recently as this August, StrategyOne's Beltway Barometer survey found 41% of DC's elite Democrats believed the 2010 midterm elections would bring additional Democrats to Congress. But now in light of polls showing a commanding double-digit lead for Republican candidate McDonnell in Virginia and a New Jersey race that is too close to call, just 3% of Washington's insider Democrats see gains in their party's future in 2010.

"With pundits and analysts looking intensely at the 2009 gubernatorial tea leaves in Virginia and New Jersey hoping to divine the outcomes of 2010 Congressional elections, this survey marks a major sea change among Washington, DC's elite policy influencers," said Sparky Zivin, Vice President of StrategyOne.

The latest data shows a groundswell of optimism from Republicans, with 63% indicating that the 2009 elections point to Republican gains in 2010, and none reporting this year's elections suggest a Democratic pick-up. Democrats, on the other hand, appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach to these midterm elections, with a majority (56%) reporting that it is "too early to tell" what 2010 will bring.

Despite differing outlooks, survey respondents from both parties seem to be in agreement on one thing: when looking beyond tomorrow's elections, Democrats will have a challenging 12 months in the lead-up to next year's midterms.

Survey Question: With Republicans poised to pick up the Virginia governorship, and the New Jersey gubernatorial election currently too close to call, what do you believe the 2009 gubernatorial elections mean for the broader 2010 midterm elections?

                                                Democrats    Republicans
                                                ---------    -----------
    Republicans will gain seats in 2010            17%           63%
    Democrats will gain seats in 2010               3%            0%
    The 2009 elections do not mean
     anything in terms of 2010                     21%            5%
    It's too early to tell                         56%           31%
    Unsure                                          4%            1%

Source: StrategyOne Beltway Barometer, telephone survey of 400 Washington, DC elites (200 Democrats, 200 Republicans), data collected October 28 - November 1, 2009, with an overall margin of error ± 4.9% at the 95% level of confidence.

For more information about this release, please contact: Sparky.Zivin@StrategyOne.net