MIAMI, Nov. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Latin America has the tools to recover quickly from the current financial crisis due to its stable and well-capitalized banking sector, while it will take the United States more time mainly because of high unemployment and low levels of consumer confidence, experts said during the 43rd Annual Assembly of the Latin American Federation of Banks (FELABAN) in Miami.
"Although the worst seems to be over in the United States, we think it will take a long time for the labor market and the economy to return to normal," said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's, during the event, which gathered more than 1,500 bankers from 43 countries. "We won't emerge from the recession for several more quarters at least."
Wyss said there are tepid signs of a recovery, although it is still too early to talk about a normalization of the U.S. economy.
"Americans are now a bit more cautious, partly because there's still a lot of unemployment and consumption is lower as a result. Likewise, people are saving more and are more careful when it comes to borrowing. For example, the savings rate in September was 3.3%, higher than the 1.7% of 2007, although the figure remains low compared to the historical average," Wyss added.
Ricardo Marino, president of FELABAN, said the outlook for Latin America is much more encouraging, noting that the global crisis has affected the region less severely. "Latin America was one of the last regions to be affected by the crisis. It will be one of the first to recover. The region is much less vulnerable than in the past and its banks today are much more solvent, have greater liquidity and are well capitalized. Latin American banks haven't suffered and won't suffer the debilitating effects of the crisis that began in the United States," he added.
Standard Chartered Bank's regional head of research for Latin America, Douglas Smith, emphasized the region's positive aspects going forward.
"The first good news is that 2009 will end on a more optimistic note than had previously been thought. Looking ahead, the outlook is considerably better," he said. However, he pointed to three variables that could impact the region in 2010: Capital controls (to impede excessive currency appreciation); Brazil's elections, which, unlike in other electoral processes, could lead to a change in economic strategy and a tilt toward interventionism; and Argentina's return to the capital markets.
He added that Latin America's recovery will not be held back by Mexico's dependence on the U.S. or by intra-regional tensions that, in the case of Venezuela and Colombia, "are much more noise than anything else on the part of the government in Caracas."
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SOURCE FELABAN
