Clarus Poll: Gov. O'Malley Could Face Trouble in 2010 Election

Job ratings, re-election vote below 50%

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The results of a new statewide poll of Maryland voters reveal that Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley may be vulnerable when he seeks re-election next year. The poll, conducted by the nonpartisan Clarus Research Group Oct. 30-Nov. 2, also shows that economic and state fiscal issues are damaging O'Malley's political prospects in this heavily Democratic state.

Findings from the Clarus Poll:

• 39 percent of voters polled say they want to see Gov. O'Malley re-elected, but 48 percent say they would like for someone new to win.
• A year before the 2010 election, 48 percent of Maryland voters approve of the job O'Malley is doing and 40 percent disapprove.
• O'Malley scores majority support on only one of 11 key state issues tested: 54 percent approval for "living up to high standards of ethics."
• On seven of the 11 issues tested, O'Malley scored less than 40 percent approval: holding down state taxes, bringing new jobs to Maryland, managing the state budget, bringing people together to solve problems, putting Maryland's interest above partisan politics, keeping in touch with average citizens, and protecting consumers against high electric utility rates.
• In a trial heat against former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich, the man O'Malley defeated in 2006, O'Malley leads his former GOP rival by a 47-40 percent margin. (In the 2006 election, O'Malley won by a 53-46 percent margin. Ehrlich has not yet announced his intentions for the 2010 election.)
• In the 2010 trial heat, Ehrlich leads O'Malley in the state's western counties (by 22 percent) and in Eastern Shore/southern counties (by 13 percent). They are tied in the Baltimore area. O'Malley's statewide lead is attributable to his strong 42-point lead in the Washington, D.C. suburbs. In the 2006 election, according to exit polls, O'Malley won 70 percent in the Washington suburbs, 52 percent in the Baltimore area and 39 percent in the rest of the state.
• O'Malley scored a 21-point lead among women voters and a 66-point advantage among African Americans, but Ehrlich carried men by 9 points and whites by 14 points. Ehrlich leads independents by 14 points.
  

"Governor O'Malley is now below 50 percent across-the-board in the triple crown of re-election poll metrics: trial heat, generic re-elect, and job approval," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group. "O'Malley faces two major problems that are dragging him down. First, his issue ratings are lackluster, especially on economic and fiscal matters. Second, he's polling only 34 percent of independents against Ehrlich. In the 2006 election, he received 47 percent of independents. That's a big drop, one that represents opportunity for a 2010 challenger," Faucheux said."

"O'Malley is favored for re-election because of Maryland's strong Democratic tilt," Faucheux said, "but if the state's current economic and fiscal troubles persist, he could be vulnerable to a strong opponent."

"An incumbent governor at this point in a first term has two big advantages over potential rivals: time and power," said Faucheux. "O'Malley has 12 months until the next election to shore up negatives and enhance positives. He has also the power to set an agenda and command public attention on issues of his choosing."

Other findings from the Clarus Poll:

• President Barack Obama's job approval rating is 60 percent in Maryland, higher than the rest of the nation, and 12 points higher than O'Malley's. (In 2008, Obama received 62 percent of the state's vote. This 2-point falloff is in line with nationwide numbers.)
• Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski, who faces re-election next year, scored a 57 percent job approval with 53 percent of voters saying they'd like to see her re-elected and 36 percent saying they want someone new.
• Other job ratings: Senator Ben Cardin (46 percent approve, 26 percent disapprove); Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown (33 percent approve, 19 percent disapprove); Attorney General Doug Gansler (34 percent approve, 17 percent disapprove), and Comptroller Peter Franchot (35 percent approve, 18 percent disapprove). All Maryland statewide elected officials tested are Democrats.
  

Clarus conducted the statewide poll among 637 voters in Maryland, based on a representative sample. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percent. Interviews were conducted via telephone by live interviewers between October 30 and November 2, 2009. (It should be noted that all interviews were completed before the Nov. 3 elections.) Questions in this poll were not asked on behalf of, or paid for by, any client, political candidate or party organization. This study was conducted for the internal use of Clarus.

Clarus Research Group is a full-service, nonpartisan, survey research firm based in Washington, D.C. that provides market insights and practical analysis for corporate, association, nonprofit and advocacy clients. More information on Clarus clients and service offerings may be found on the Web at www.ClarusRG.com.

Ron Faucheux, Clarus president and chief analyst, is available for interviews. Dr. Faucheux is the author or editor of seven books on politics, teaches at the Georgetown University Public Policy Institute, and is the former editor of Campaigns & Elections magazine. He can be contacted at Rfaucheux@ClarusRG.com.

The following are the actual questions asked in the Maryland poll:

    I am now going to read you a list of local public officials. Please tell
    me whether you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing... if you
    have never heard of the name, please say so.

                                     APPROVE    DISAPPROVE    DON'T KNOW/
                                                            NEVER HEARD OF

    Governor Martin O'Malley            48%         40%          12%
    Senator Ben Cardin                  46          26           28
    Senator Barbara Mikulski            57          28           15
    President Barack Obama              60          33            7
    Comptroller Peter Franchot          35          18           48
    Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown   33          19           49
    Attorney General Douglas Gansler    34          17           48

    Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Governor
    Martin O'Malley is handling the following issues -

                                     APPROVE    DISAPPROVE    DON'T KNOW

    Managing the state budget           39%         47%          13%
    Bringing people together
      to solve problems                 38          38           24
    Protecting consumers against
      high electric utility rates       33          50           17
    Keeping in touch with average
      citizens                          36          44           20
    Holding down state taxes            35          54           10
    Living up to high standards
      of ethics                         54          24           22
    Providing strong leadership         47          37           16
    Protecting the state against
      crime and violence                42          41           17
    Handling transportation and
      traffic problems                  42          42           16
    Putting Maryland's interest
      above partisan politics           35          43           22
    Bringing new jobs to Maryland       33          46           21

    Maryland will have an election for Governor next year. At this point,
    would you like to see Martin O'Malley re-elected or would you like to see
    somebody new get elected?

      1.  O'Malley re-elected                      39%
      2.  Somebody new                             48
      3.  (DO NOT READ) Depends on who runs         6
      4.  (DO NOT READ) Don't know/no answer        7

    If the candidates for governor of Maryland next year are (ROTATE) MARTIN
    O'MALLEY, THE DEMOCRAT, and BOB EHRLICH, THE REPUBLICAN, which one would
    you most likely vote for?

      1.  O'Malley                                 47%
      2.  Ehrlich                                  40
      3.  (DO NOT READ) Someone else                3
      4.  (DO NOT READ) Undecided, don't know      10

    Maryland will also elect a U.S. Senator next year. At this point, would
    you like to see Senator Barbara Mikulski re-elected or would you like to
    see somebody new get elected?

      1.  Mikulski re-elected                      53%
      2.  Somebody new                             36
      3.  (DO NOT READ) Depends on who runs         4
      4.  (DO NOT READ) Don't know/no answer        7