A new model used to predict the adverse effects of global warming says that between 2009 and 2014 temperatures are likely to soar above existing records. The report by researchers at the Met Office in the UK is published in the latest issue of the journal Science.
Researchers from the Hadley Center predict that the Earth will be 0.3C warmer in 2014 as compared to prevailing temperatures in 2004. The present record is that which was registered in 1998 when the mean surface temperature recorded 14.54C (58.17F).
However the researchers also predict that natural variations in global climate will to some extent mitigate the rise in surface temperatures.
In May and June, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had said that human activities were the most likely cause of global warming and had warned that temperatures would rise by 1.8-4.0C (3.2-7.2F) toward the end of the century.
In the present study researchers used a model that is able to predict temperatures within 10 years by calculating effects of calamities like the El Nino. The model is called the Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys). It is based on an existing model that is already in use by the Hadley Center.
"It is the same model as used in the latest IPCC report's predictions for the coming century, but the difference is that it starts from the real observed status of the ocean and the atmosphere," said lead author Doug Smith, a climate scientist at the Hadley Centre. "We start with the present state of the ocean, and we try to predict how it is going to evolve."
Researchers were able to predict changes in a decade's timeframe by studying the prevailing condition of the oceans and the atmosphere itself. "One reason why the 10-year projection has not been done before is because the ocean has traditionally had very poor observational coverage," Dr Smith said.
However recent improvements in satellite data as well as instruments have allowed scientists to study ocean temperatures extensively and hence made it easier to predict changes on a short-term basis.
