Brussels - Herman Van Rompuy has won the race to become the first-ever president of the European Union. Now he has to succeed in the job. Analysts say that his success or failure will largely depend on his relationship with six other key players in the EU: the leaders of Spain, France, Germany, the European Commission, the British opposition, and the EU's new diplomatic service.
"Right from the word go, his relationship with the largest countries and the other officials will be really important: he will have to focus on how not to get eaten by the bigger egos," said Hugo Brady, senior research fellow at the British think tank, Centre for European Reform.
At the top of the list of politicians who could make or break Van Rompuy stands Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Spain's prime minister. This is because his country is set to take over the EU's rotating presidency on January 1.
Theoretically, Van Rompuy should be the driving force behind the EU during the Spanish presidency. But Zapatero has already made it clear that he will not be sidelined - and EU rules mean that he will have his hands on the levers of power in Brussels.
"Member states still want the (rotating presidency) to play a key role, and it will," because Spanish diplomats, not Van Rompuy's staff, will chair key discussions such as ambassadorial meetings, said Janis Emmanouilidis, senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels.
Analysts say that that situation could quickly lead to clashes if both Van Rompuy and Zapatero seek to speak on behalf of the EU.
"The first conflicts will be over foreign policy and who has what competences, leadership and visibility. The question is, who will be the first to act in an international crisis?" said Piotr Kaczynski, an EU expert at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
Zapatero, for instance, has said his presidency will push for Turkish membership of the EU. Van Rompuy, on the other hand, has in the past expressed opposition to Turkey joining the union.
But the Belgian shied away from confrontation and appeared to take his new role as EU "coordinator" in his stride Thursday, saying: "My personal views are irrelevant, my role is to find consensus."
Van Rompuy will also have to define his relationship with the EU's other two top officials: European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and the bloc's new foreign-policy director, Catherine Ashton.
All three are meant to represent the EU in crucial questions such as foreign policy and climate change - setting up the potential for further clashes over powers and prerogatives.
"The interplay between them will be another crucial question," with the risk that Ashton "might be squeezed" between Van Rompuy, Barroso and Zapatero, Emmanouilidis said.
And within Europe, it is not yet clear whether Van Rompuy or Barroso will come to be seen as "the face of the EU", leaving room for another clash of wills.
Asked who would represent Europe on the world stage, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said: "The image of Europe is European unity."
Finally, Van Rompuy will have to find a way of dealing with the EU's most powerful member states, Britain, France and Germany.
Sarkozy, who held the EU presidency in the second half of 2008, is seen in Brussels as a tireless, restless leader who regularly criticizes what he sees as other presidencies' incompetence. Analysts say that Van Rompuy is unlikely to escape Sarkozy's criticism if he puts a foot wrong.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meanwhile, is arguably Europe's most influential politician and the head of the EU's richest government.
"At the moment, Merkel is the president of Europe politically, and (Van Rompuy) will have to find a way of dealing with that," Kaczynski said.
And Britain's conservative opposition leader David Cameron, widely expected to win a general election tipped for May 2010, is a bitter critic of EU integration - leading analysts to expect trouble from London sooner rather than later.
"If you are in (Van Rompuy's) position and need consensus, you will have big problems finding consensus with the new government in London," Emmanouilidis said.
The Belgian will need all his diplomatic skill to steer a safe course between the challenges around him.
But at least he can rest assured of one thing: if he does manage to make a success of the job, it will be thanks entirely to his own political ability, not to the EU's rules.
"The president's authority will have to be self-made: success will be based on his own charisma in a crowded field," Brady said.
