Nairobi/Conakry, Guinea - When tens of thousands of opposition supporters turned up for a banned rally at the September 28 stadium in the Guinean capital Conakry on Monday, the atmosphere was initially jubilant. They waved palm fronds and banners denouncing junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, who in December took control of the West African nation in a bloodless coup following the death of strongman president Lansana Conte.
Then, when the protestors tried to gain entry to the stadium, the military opened fire. Some 87 people died, according to the security forces. Many more were injured and opposition leaders were jailed.
Guinea's junta had shown its true colours.
When Dadis first seized power, he portrayed himself as a man of the people who only had the best interests of his country at heart.
Elections were promised for January 2010 and Dadis assured the public he had no interest in ruling long-term.
But as rumours grew in recent months that he was planning to run for president, so did political opposition. Opposition rallies prior to Monday had attracted tens of thousands of angry Guineans.
Analysts say it was this growth of popular opposition and international calls for the junta leader not to run in January that led to the massacre.
"Having been faced with international condemnation of his apparent desire to run, Dadis' approach is to try to establish his power on the streets," Richard Moncrieff, West Africa Project Manager for the International Crisis Group, told the German Press Agency dpa.
"For that reason, he and other members of the junta could not allow people to show support for the opposition."
But while Dadis may have banned the rally in an attempt to quell the opposition, it is not clear if he actually ordered the military to open fire.
In an interview with Senegalese radio, Dadis distanced himself from the bloodbath, blaming it on soldiers who lost control following a stampede. He even apologized.
According to Moncrieff, Dadis may be telling the truth.
"It's a clampdown on the opposition that illustrates ... Dadis is not in control of his army," Moncrieff said. "There is complete indiscipline."
The breakdown in discipline was apparent from witness testimony.
Witnesses and medical personnel told New York-based Human Rights Watch that many bodies were riddled with bullet holes, while others bore stab wounds from knives and bayonets.
They also said that troops sexually assaulted female protestors during the crackdown.
"I saw the Red Berets (an elite unit within the military) catch some of the women who were trying to flee, rip off their clothes, and stick their hands in their private parts," a witness told HRW.
"Others beat the women, including on their genitals. It was pathetic - the women were crying out."
Observers say that the military command structure has been breaking down over the last few years, with human rights abuses becoming increasingly common.
This is not the first time that the army has massacred unarmed civilians. In early 2007, the military killed dozens of people when it indiscriminately fired into a crowd protesting against Conte, who seized power in 1984.
International condemnation followed then, as it has now.
France, Guinea's former colonial master, condemned the latest massacre as the "violent repression" of a peaceful demonstration.
The United Nations, the European Union, the United States and the African Union all piled in to blast the violence.
But the junta has shown that international pressure has minimal influence.
The AU suspended Guinea shortly after the coup and the EU says it will withhold 290 million euros (424 million dollars) of financial support until credible elections are held. But these steps have done little to deter the junta.
Dadis has not officially indicated his desire to run for president, but he has told several western diplomats this is his intention.
The junta leader had promised to bring an end to the years of authoritarian rule that have gripped Guinea since independence from France in 1958.
But one western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told
