Kabul/Delhi - Never has a commander of the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan painted so bleak a picture of the situation in the country. On Monday, the Washington Post published excerpts of a 66-page report sent to the Pentagon by the US commander in Afghanistan, Stanley McChrystal, in which the general said the mission would "likely result in failure" unless more troops were sent - and a change of strategy was made.
The tone of the statements from McChrystal's predecessors had always been that the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was on the right path - something which experts have long rejected as wishful thinking.
In the past eight years, the ISAF forces have been gradually built up, with some 100,000 foreign troops now in the country. But this build-up has been seemingly to little avail, as the Afghan insurgency is stronger now than it has been at any time since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001.
McChrystal is now sounding the alarm. Repeatedly in his assessment report he warns of a worsening of conditions in the country. "This is an important, and probably decisive phase, in this war," he writes.
The Afghans were frustrated at the lack of progress in their country, McChrystal said.
"Patience is understandably short, in Afghanistan as well as in our own country," McChrystal said.
ISAF statistics show how the situation in the Hindu Kush has deteriorated. In comparison with the same period the previous year, attacks by insurgents rose by 71 per cent in the first six months of 2009.
The number of bomb-attacks - which ISAF calls "killer number one for troops and civilians" - went up by 84 per cent. Some 47 per cent more members of the Afghan security forces were killed, while a third more casualties were reported by the ISAF forces.
McChrystal also warns that it "is realistic to expect that Afghan and coalition casualties will increase," until the Afghan government and ISAF had won back the initiative.
Vital for success according to the general's assessment is that the ISAF troops move away from conventional anti-insurgency tactics, and move toward protecting the Afghan population.
"I believe we must interact more closely with the population and focus on operations that bring stability, while shielding them from insurgent violence, corruption, and coercion," he said.
While the Taliban could tolerate losing fighters and leaders, it would not survive losing control over the population, McChrystal wrote.
"Pre-occupied with protection of our own forces, we have operated in a manner that distances us - physically and psychologically - from the people we seek to protect. The insurgents cannot defeat us militarily; but we can defeat ourselves."
The new direction would involve spending as much time as possible with the population - and as little time as possible inside armoured vehicles.
In addition, the general's report advocated building up the Afghan security forces faster than had been previously envisaged.
McChrystal hit out hard at the government of President Hamid Karzai, however. The central government had not been able to offer the Afghan population sufficient security, justice and basic necessities, he said.
ISAF could "no longer ignore" the misuse of power by government officials, or corruption, he said.
McChrystal left no doubt that time in Afghanistan is running out for ISAF - and a change of wind would have to come in the next twelve months.
Otherwise the mission risks an outcome "where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible," he said.
