A World Health Organization (WHO) report from Vietnam has found that the avian flu virus, medically called H5N1 virus, is becoming ‘more capable of human-to human transmission’ and is showing greater potential of causing a pandemic.
“The changes in the epidemiological patterns are consistent with the possibility that recently emerging H5N1 viruses may be more infectious for humans,” the report said, adding that though the implications of these findings are not ‘fully clear’, they point towards the continual evolution of the virus, thus posing a growing pandemic threat.
“I think it’s fair to say that the report signifies a definite step up in concern. We’re basically worried that that’s what is happening, but we’re also saying that there’s not quite enough information available – not quite enough data and cases and patterns to really solidly say that that is the case,” said Dr Keiji Fukuda, a flu expert from Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the healthcare fraternity, at the annual assembly of the World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva, expressed its inability to detect and curb the spread of a resistant strain of avian flu virus. “We are working on pandemic preparedness on borrowed time. The objective of pandemic preparedness can only be damage control. There will be death and destruction,” said Klaus Stohr of WHO. He said that estimates show that should a pandemic break out, it could claim 7.4 million lives. “National pandemic response plans are the key,” he said, while accepting that stockpiling antiviral drugs in big amounts might pose a problem due to the cost factor. “The emphasis will have to be on non-pharmaceutical measures to stop spread,” he said.
The warnings are more alarming due to the fact that health officials from developed countries have also expressed doubts about their ability to handle bird flu pandemic. “All countries are grappling with similar questions,” said Bruce Gellin of United States. Officials from Thailand said detection posed a very big problem and detection in the early stages of a pandemic was imperative.
Thailand’s Kumnuan Ungchusak said, “If we detect it at that point, it would be easy to control, but it if we miss it could be bad.” Dutch officials reported facing problems in training medical workers and getting medicines. “The major message in our plans is that we should be aware that there is a shortage. There is a scarcity of everything, operational plans should not hide this,” said Lenie Kootstra, Netherlands’ public health director.
But the threat is the highest for developing nations. “The worst hit countries are going to be poor people, countries that are not prepared, that have poor health systems,” said WHO’s Asamaoah Baah.
Meanwhile, on April 28, health officials in Guangzhou in China found chicken, goose and duck eggs carried by air passengers from Vietnam contained the fatal avian flu virus. So far, the virus has claimed 52 people lives in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
