Hanoi - Vietnam's export-driven economy has improved in recent months but remains vulnerable to economic trends elsewhere, experts said Monday. "The trend toward recovery in Vietnam's economy is stronger now, but exports are still fragile because the global economy is unstable," said Vo Tri Thanh, vice director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, a government economic think tank.
Exports rose to 4.75 billion dollars in July, up 1 per cent from June, the Ministry of Trade and Industry reported last week, but the speed of growth was slower than in June when exports rose 6.5 per cent and May when they rose 3.2 per cent.
The country earned 32.3 billion dollars from exports in the first seven months of the year, down 13.4 per cent compared with the same period last year.
In June, the government lowered its projected 2009 export revenues from 72 billion to 65 billion dollars, an increase of 3 per cent over 2008. To meet that target, the country would need to earn 6 billion dollars per month through the end of the year, which appears extremely unlikely.
"It will be very challenging for Vietnam to reach its target," Thanh said.
"Vietnam's exports will not fully recover until demand from developed countries like the US and EU fully recovers," said Dao Trong Khanh, chief executive of the Tien Phong Commercial Bank.
The National Economic Institute, a government think tank, recently forecast the country's exports would fall 12 per cent this year because of weakened demand and low global prices.
