The Hague - The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague is to issue its tensely-awaited ruling on Sudan's Abyei border dispute, an issue at the core of the country's 20-year civil war, on Wednesday. The international court's decision will determine the future of the disputed oil-rich area on between the Arab Muslim north and the predominantly Christian south of the huge north-east African country.
The Abyei border dispute was at the core of a 20-year civil war that was formally ended with a peace agreement in 2005.
The outcome of the case before the PCA would "test the solidarity of the agreement," Sudan expert Dick Leurdijk of the Clingendael Institute for International Relations and Diplomacy in The Hague told the German Press Agency dpa.
"The ruling constitutes a legal solution to what is essentially a political problem, that should be resolved accordingly by the parties involved. I am not convinced either party will accept Wednesday's decision," he said.
The international community might have been too eager to enforce peace upon North and South Sudan in 2005, resulting in an agreement that failed to resolve "several core issues," he said.
Among these was the question of Abyei that is claimed by both the north and south as exclusive territory. With South Sudan seeking independence, the area that generated an estimated 530 million dollars in oil revenue in 2007, has gained importance, said Leurdijk.
In 2008, three years after the peace agreement, an estimated 50,000 people fled Abyei, fearing the north-south civil war - that killed 1.5 million people - would be reignited.
Intense negotiations followed.
On July 11, 2008, the government of Sudan, representing the north, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, representing the south, agreed to bring their dispute over Abyei before the PCA.
In the meantime, the region has come under the authority of an interim administration.
Leurdijk said the situation in Sudan demonstrates how ongoing concerted efforts by the international community to resolve local conflicts may sometimes lead nowhere.
"The international community desperately wanted to end Sudan's north-south civil war and the killing in Darfur. However, its efforts have hardly had any result in either situation," he said.
Khartoum's refusal to cooperate is partly to blame for that, Leurdijk added. But internal divisions in the international community were also responsible.
"China, which is a member of the United Nations Security Council, is the only member of that council to maintain reasonable contacts with Khartoum. But it refuses to exert pressure on Khartoum," he said.
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has been the subject of an international arrest warrant since March for his alleged role in atrocities against civilians in the western Darfur region.
