Bonn - As an initial round of climate change talks ended in Bonn on Friday, a US expert said he had slim hopes that a comprehensive agreement could be reached in time to be ratified at a UN summit in Copenhagen at the end of the year. "I think it's pretty clear at this stage that we are not going to get to a full and final agreement in Copenhagen," said Elliot Diringer of the Pew Centre on Global Climate Change.
Worse still, Diringer said, political pressures could lead to a document being agreed upon that wasn't stringent enough to be effective.
"There is the risk that, if we can't get a meaningful outcome, parties will feel compelled to show some type of outcome that will fall well short of what's needed," the analyst said.
Over the past 12 days, 4,600 delegates from some 192 nations kick- started negotiations due to culminate in Copenhagen in December, where a successor to the Kyoto Protocol is to be agreed under the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Diringer said the process was only just beginning. "We are at a stage where parties really aren't ready to move on positions but are intent on laying down positions."
One of the main sticking points is the financial commitments that developed countries are prepared to make to help emerging nations meet emissions targets and deal with the effects of climate change.
Developing countries are reluctant to commit to action on climate change without firm financial backing from industrialized nations to help them take the necessary steps.
So far however, few advances have been made on incorporating financial pledges into in any final agreement.
"I think we need to show some real progress on finance between now and Copenhagen in order to have a comprehensive deal that lays the ground for meaningful commitments by all the major economies," said the Pew Centre's envoy to the Bonn talks.
However, the spokesman of the non-governmental organisation was positive about the changes in US climate change policy brought about by US President Barack Obama.
Of the past three months, Diringer said, "we are seeing very strong progress toward very meaningful action in the United States," adding that the country was "well on track toward establishing very ambitious targets.
The United States presented its own comprehensive agreement on climate change in Bonn, calling for legally binding CO2 emission reduction targets for developed countries and a commitment to set actions for emerging nations.
Nevertheless, Diringer said real progress in climate change negotiations could only be initiated by national governments.
"We will not see real progress in this forum without stronger consensus at the leader level," said the Pew Center's expert on the post-Kyoto framework.
"Negotiators here won't budge from positions without new instructions from capitals, Diringer said, adding, "Those will come only when we see a stronger consensus emerge among leaders.
As well as three further UN forums scheduled ahead of Copenhagen, heads of state gathering for a Group of 8 (G8) leading economies summit in July are also due to tackle climate change.
A US initiative also brings together the 17 largest greenhouse emitters later in the year, and further talks are planned during the UN General Assembly in New York in September.
