Nairobi/Mogadishu - As the Ethiopian troops that have supported Somalia's transitional federal government for the last two years left their main bases in the capital Mogadishu Tuesday, many residents celebrated the departure of what they see as an oppressive occupying force. But the celebrations may be short-lived.
Analysts' warnings that the departure of Ethiopia's 3,000 troops could lead to more anarchy in the Horn of Africa nation as Islamist insurgents and other militia struggle to seize power appear to be coming true.
Ethiopian forces invaded in late 2006 to help kick out the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) - a hardline Islamist regime that was in power for six months.
The invasion sparked a bloody insurgency that has killed an estimated 16,000 civilians.
Now Ethiopia has had enough of backing a government that has managed to do little more than squabble over power as Somalia falls further into chaos.
Political infighting reached new heights in December when President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed defied parliament to sack Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.
Yusuf, who many saw as an obstacle to a UN-backed peace process with the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), was forced to resign over the issue.
Once Ethiopia's pullout is complete, only ramshackle government forces and an undermanned African Union force of around 3,000 troops from Uganda and Burundi will remain to hold the line.
The AU is desperately trying to scrape up more troops but the UN has ruled out sending in a peacekeeping force.
Main insurgent group al-Shabaab, which the US claims has strong links to al-Qaeda, would appear to be in pole position to take advantage of the government's weakened defences.
But al-Shabaab is likely to face opposition from other groups.
"We could very well see a big splintering of groups and an intensification of the conflict," Roger Middleton, Horn of Africa analyst at London-based think tank Chatham House, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
"The likely scenario is that once Ethiopia is out of the equation the ARS will split ... al-Shabaab will split and former warlords will come back out," he added.
There are some who feel that with Yusuf out of the picture it may be easier to strike a deal to create an inclusive government and bring peace to Somalia.
However, the peace process does not include al-Shabaab and other groups, and events that have unfolded since the Ethiopians first announced their plans to leave make the gloomier scenario seem more likely.
Al-Shabaab and a local militia clashed in Guriel, some 500 kilometres north of Mogadishu, over the weekend, leaving 30 dead and 30 more injured.
A relatively new Islamist group, Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, has also engaged in heavy fighting with al-Shabaab over the past few weeks. Dozens have died in the battles.
Then on Monday, Islamist insurgents attacked the presidential palace, where Hussein was meeting AU peacekeepers. Somali troops responded by firing mortars into a crowded market place, killing 11 civilians.
For Somalis, who have been suffered constant conflict since the ouster of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991, the likelihood of continued fighting means the misery that has become all too commonplace is set to stay.
Some 3.2 million people, 40 per cent of the total population, are dependent on humanitarian aid as a result of the conflict, as well as drought and high food prices.
More than 1 million people have already fled their homes, many of them to the Dadaab refugee camp complex in neighbouring Kenya.
Dadaab is the largest refugee camp in the world, housing an estimated 230,000 Somalis. The complex, made up of three separate camps, is now at bursting point.
But should the trend of recent days continue, more room may have to be found as Somalis continue to abandon their blighted country in droves.
