NEW YORK: Global warming is set to have a far more destructive impact than earlier predicted and it is going to be experienced sooner than later, according to a most authentic report ever to be made on climate change.
The draft of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due for release next week, predicts that there will be more number and more frequent storms, there will be a phenomenal increase in the sea levels over the century, there will be total disappearance of snow from everywhere except the tallest mountains, there will be increase in the area of deserts, sea will tend to become acidic, which will destroy coral reefs and atolls, and deadly heat waves will become almost normal.
The report warns of catastrophic events like millions of people forced to flee their homelands, mostly in tropical low-lying areas. Such a cross-country migration will lead to tremendous strain on the economies of even the strongest of the countries.
The most despondent aspect of the report is that the scenario depicted is as realistic as it can be because it has been the work of several thousands of climate experts with widely differing views on how emissions take effect on the climate. Each argument and each conclusion in the report is well-thought out and researched and only those points have been included in the final draft which were considered indisputable.
The report is expected to be released on 2 February. While the final conclusions are still being worked out, the draft that has been made available gives a clear indication of the way the scientists think about what the future holds for Earth in case the emissions are allowed to continue the way it is now.
They have put forth the following conclusive proofs:
- 12 of the past 13 years had been the warmest since records began.
- Ocean temperatures have risen at least three kilometers under the surface.
- Glaciers, snow cover and permafrost have decreased in both hemispheres.
- Sea levels are rising at the rate of almost 2 mm a year.
The authors say it is very likely that man-made greenhouse gas increases caused most of the average temperature increases since the mid-20th century.
The report, based on highly reliable computer models and very minute observations of snow cover loss, sea level rises and the spread of deserts, says climate changes are "extremely likely" and "almost certain."
It tells skeptics in no unclear terms that mankind's industrial emissions have had five times more effect on the climate than any fluctuations in solar radiation.
Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and one of the lead authors of the report, says the report is bound to assert that global warming is happening, and secondly, that it is due to humans. The whole weight of the evidence has simply increased to show that stuff is already happening, he says.
The IPCC, which was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program to assess the "risk of human-induced climate change," issues major reports about every five years. They are compiled and exhaustively analyzed and reviewed by over 2,000 scientists and the governments of 154 countries. The last report was issued in 2001.
