Johannesburg - What next for Zimbabwe, the country outspoken Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa calls the "sinking Titanic"?Mwanawasa wasn't at the African Union heads of state summit in Egypt that closed Tuesday with a call for a unity government between dictatorial Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
The 59-year-old Zambian suffered a stroke on the eve of the summit, robbing the small group of African countries, including Botswana and Nigeria, that openly denounced Mugabe of an authoritative voice.
Mwanawasa, a tireless anti-corruption campaigner, is one of the few African leaders who has nothing to fear from Mugabe's threats about stones in glass houses.
"I am going to go to that AU summit ... I want to see whose finger there is clean," Mugabe had threatened - with some success.
Despite three African observer missions concluding the June 27 election that returned him as president for another five years was not free, fair or credible, the aging leader was allowed pull up a chair alongside other heads of state in Sharm el-Sheikh.
That, in itself, was a coronation of sorts for Zimbabwe's leader of 28 years, who was inaugurated Sunday for another five.
If there was any doubt who, between Mugabe and Tsvangirai the AU considered the rightful heir to power, it was spelt out in the final declaration.
"President Robert Mugabe" and "Mr Morgan Tsvangirai" were encouraged to "honour their commitment to initiate dialogue" on a unity government.
Except that the MDC had said that if Mugabe forged ahead with his one-man election which Tsvangirai boycotted over a wave of militia attacks on his supporters, there would be nothing to talk about.
But the African Union knows that for the MDC, resistance is almost useless.
The party, which has always rejected violence as a way of achieving regime change, has no form of leverage over Mugabe, bar pressure from Zimbabwe's neighbours.
It has tried mass action before, but its strikes are usually flops given that the few Zimbabweans with a job can't afford not to work. When the MDC calls protests, the demonstrators are routinely arrested by police and beaten.
So, all eyes were riveted on Sharm el Sheikh to see whether Africa would deliver Zimbabweans from one of the continent's last strongman leaders, paving the way for money and aid to begin flowing again into the shrinking economy.
This time, given the election observers' damning reports of violence and intimidation, the African Union might even expel Zimbabwe, some observers had even dared to hope.
Instead, by inviting him to join in a government of national unity, they actually rewarded his belligerence, according to Human Rights Watch's senior Africa researcher, Tiseke Kasambala.
"He's now in a position of power and Morgan Tsvangirai is now in the weaker position," Kasambala noted.
The cracks in the MDC were beginning to show by Wednesday.
After party number two Tendai Biti declared Tuesday that last week's election had "completely exterminated any prospects of a negotiated settlement," Tsvangirai said the party remained "committed to negotiations," albeit only on the basis of his first-round presidential victory in March polls.
The AU, for its part, has remained vague on what sort of unity government it foresees.
A Mugabe government inclusive of the MDC or a Tsvangirai government inclusive of Zanu-PF? A transitional government paving the way for free and fair elections in a few years' time or a full-term five-year government?
"The whole concept of a government of national unity should be problematized," said Chris Maroleng, a senior researcher and Zimbabwe expert at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria.
Maroleng believes a transitional authority should first oversee the wholesale reform of key state institutions that have been subverted by Mugabe to perpetuate his rule - including the judiciary, the police and election bodies. For this to be achieved, a new constitution would be required.
"A government of national unity would be like icing on an old cake," he said. "It looks nice on the outside but it's rotten on the inside."
