Mogadishu - A United Nations-brokered agreement between Somalia's government and an opposition faction has been hailed in some quarters as a step toward ending an Iraq-style insurgency in the Horn of Africa nation, but it appears to offer only a slim hope for an end to the violence. Officials from the Somali government and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), based in the Eritrean capital Asmara, agreed late Monday night to end hostilities within 30 days for an initial 90-day period.
But the deal does not embrace all of the warring parties and without the backing of the Islamic insurgent group Al-Shabaab, the almost-daily bombings and battles that have taken a heavy civilian toll and forced hundreds of thousands to flee Mogadishu look unlikely to end.
Nonetheless, the Somali government called the deal a step forward and said it was prepared to talk to Al-Shabaab, the armed wing of Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which briefly controlled Mogadishu in 2006, in order to end the conflict.
"The government's strategy for the reconciliation process is to sit down with all sides to discuss a solution and Al-Shabaab is among those," government spokesman Abdi Hagi Gobdon told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
But it is the ARS, not the government, that is expected to be crucial in bringing Al-Shabaab to the table and analysts believe that the coming days will see the opposition holding talks with the militant group.
"This (30-day period) is to allow the ARS time to talk to Al-Shabaab, and try to bring them on board," Rashid Abdi, the International Crisis Group's Horn of Africa analyst told dpa.
"Whether Al-Shabaab can be persuaded, nobody knows," he said.
The signs do not look positive so far, however. The ARS is divided on the peace agreement and Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a party hardliner who has suspected links to Al-Quaeda and formerly headed up the UIC, rejected the deal Tuesday.
"The Djibouti talks were futile ... our Mujahidin will carry on attacks until we liberate our country from the Ethiopians," Aweys told Mogadishu-based Shabelle Radio. "We will in no way support them; the Islamic struggle is our main ambition."
Somalia has been in a state of anarchy since the overthrow of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. Fighting has intensified since transitional federal government troops and their Ethiopian allies in late 2006 wrested control of Mogadishu from the UIC.
Al-Shabaab has been waging a bloody guerrilla war ever since. Dozens were killed in Mogadishu alone this weekend as insurgents battled government troops backed by Ethiopian forces and African Union peacekeepers.
Aid agencies say the Horn of Africa nation is facing a massive humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands flee the conflict.
Some 2.6 million people are now dependent on food aid as a result of the conflict, drought and rising food prices, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization.
Getting Al-Shabaab on board is key to bringing any kind of peace that could alleviate the crisis, but one of the main sticking points to any lasting peace is the presence of Ethiopian troops.
Al-Shabaab and other hardliners want the Ethiopians to leave before agreeing to a ceasefire. The deal, however, specifies they will leave within 120 days of the ceasefire coming into effect, on the condition that sufficient UN peacekeepers are on the ground.
The UN has said it would consider sending in forces to relieve African Union peacekeepers if there is an improvement in security, although Abdi and many Somalis believe that 90 days is far too short a time to organize a replacement peacekeeping force.
AU peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi are present in Somalia, but they number only a few thousand - around a quarter of the force supposed to be on the ground - and have failed to stem the violence.
While the deal seems weak to many, ordinary Somalis were positive about the development.
In Mogadishu, people crowded into cafes and gathered under trees to discuss the deal, and although there were differences of opinion, most saw it as a shaft of light in an otherwise desperate situation.
"The Somali people are exhausted by the ongoing violence and they are extremely happy to hear of a peace agreement - this is a golden opportunity to break the political deadlock," Dr. Ali Sheikh Abdi, a school principal, told dpa.
Abdi also believes that there is at least some small hope of appeasing the hardliners and ending the conflict.
"We have to remember that those we call radicals and militants are still politicians," he said. "They want power and can be brought on board."
