Rome - Rice production in Asia, Africa and Latin America is forecast to reach a new "record level" in 2008, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Monday. But the Rome-based agency also warned that the cyclone disaster in Myanmar could still negatively impact on production and that world rice prices could remain high in the short term, as much of the 2008 crops will only be harvested by the end of the year.
"World paddy production 2008 could grow by about 2.3 per cent reaching a new record level of 666 million tons, according to our preliminary forecasts," FAO rice expert Concepcion Calpe said in a statement.
"But the cyclone disaster in Myanmar could well worsen our forecast," she added.
The destruction of Myanmar's food basket may sharply decrease national rice production and impair access to food, according to first FAO estimates.
Damage from the cyclone - which struck when paddy farmers in Myanmar were harvesting their dry season crop accounting for 20 per cent of annual production - could worsen the current global rice production outlook, the FAO said.
"Entire rice-growing areas are flooded and many roads and bridges are impassable. Several rice warehouses and stocks were destroyed. Rice prices in Rangoon have already surged by nearly 50 per cent," it said.
Myanmar may need to turn to neighbouring countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam for rice imports, putting more pressure on world prices, the FAO said.
"For the first time, paddy production in Asia may surpass the 600 million tonne benchmark this year, amounting to 605 million tons," Calpe said.
"Major gains are expected all across the region. Bangladesh, China, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam could register the largest gains. Prospects are also buoyant for Indonesia and Sri Lanka, despite some recent flood-incurred losses," Calpe said.
Assuming normal rains in the coming months, rice production in Africa is forecast to grow by 3.6 per cent to 23.2 million tons in 2008, with large expansions anticipated in Ivory Coast, Egypt, Ghana, Guinea, Mali and Nigeria.
Paddy production in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rebound by 7.4 per cent to 26.2 million tons in 2008.
Production prospects, however, are negative for Australia, the United States and Europe.
Rice prices have skyrocketed by around 76 per cent between December 2007 and April 2008, according to the FAO Rice Price Index. International rice prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels, as stocks held by exporters are expected to be reduced heavily.
In addition, other large importers will probably return to the international market to buy rice, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Senegal.
"Prices are expected to remain extremely firm, at least until the third quarter of 2008, unless restrictions on exports are eased in the coming months," Calpe said.
In an attempt to avoid food scarcities in their own countries, major rice exporters have recently imposed export bans, taxes or minimum ceilings.
"These measures further restricted the availability of rice supplies on international markets, triggering yet more price rises and tighter supply conditions. At the moment, only Thailand, Pakistan and the United States, among leading exporters, are exporting rice without any constraints," Calpe added.
Auctions by the Philippines to import massive volumes of rice have also contributed to record rice prices, the FAO said.
For prices to fall, favourable weather conditions must prevail in the coming months and governments must relax rice export restrictions.
However, rice prices are unlikely to return to the levels of 2007, as producers have to pay much more for their fertilizers, pesticides and fuel.
Export restrictions will influence trade in rice, estimated to reach 28.8 million tons in 2008, around 7 per cent or 2.2 million tons lower than the 2007 record level.
Average world rice consumption per person is set to increase by 0.5 per cent, the FAO estimated.
