Bangkok/Yangon - Myanmar's death toll from Cyclone Nargis could increase 15-fold to 1.5 million in coming weeks unless a tsunami-style relief effort is put in place and access granted to international aid workers, aid agency Oxfam said Sunday. "With the likelihood of 100,000 or more killed in the cyclone there are all the factors for a public health catastrophe which could multiply that death toll by up to 15 times in the coming period," said Oxfam's Regional Director for East Asia, Sarah Ireland.
"We support a call to lift visa restrictions on international aid agencies wanting to assist disaster affected people in Myanmar," said Ireland.
Herremarks joined a growing chorus of relief experts demanding Myanmar's ruling generals grant visas to expedite a massive emergency aid programme in the areas hard hit by the May 2-3 cyclone which are only receiving a trickle of supplies a week after the storm.
Myanmar's military regime has delayed visa requests for dozens of aid agencies who have been trying to get their experts in to the country since the cyclone struck.
To its credit, the junta over the weekend eased restrictions on the aid itself, after causing an international furore Friday by seizing a delivery of high-energy biscuits flown in by the World Food Programme (WFP) for the cyclone victims.
Yangon International Airport authorities on Friday refused to pass over a cargo of biscuits to UN officers working in Myanmar, reportedly because the military wished to distribute the aid itself.
After threatening to halt all flights over the food seizure, the WFP decided to go ahead with deliveries anyway this weekend.
On Saturday, Myanmar airport authorities allowed biscuits flown in on a flight from Phnom Penh to be handed over to the WFP in Yangon.
"It was a very positive sign," said WFP spokesman Marcus Prior. "The airport authorities could not have been more cooperative."
The WFP has been able to organize eight aid flights to Yangon over the past few days, bringing in 55 tons of high-energy biscuits, temporary office units and other emergency supplies.
Food, mostly rice, has also been delivered to some 16,000 people in the hardest-hit townships in the Irrawaddy delta, such as Labutta and Maubin, said Prior.
But he acknowledged that WFP experts awaiting visas to enter the country have not yet received them.
The UNHCR has also been allowed to truck in several tons of rice from Thailand to Myanmar via the Mae Sot border crossing. Other aid agencies reported similar success in getting the aid in, although problems persist with getting experts in to facilitate deliveries.
Cyclone Nargis hit at a sensitive time politically for the junta, which held a referendum Saturday to win approval of a new constitution that cements its dominance over future elected governments through a system of appointees in the upper and lower houses.
Ignoring international appeals to postpone the vote and concentrate on the helping the cyclone victims instead, the military went ahead with Saturday's referendum, although the vote was delayed until May 24 in 47 of the worst-hit townships.
Cyclone Nargis is deemed the worst natural disaster to hit South- east Asia since the December 26, 2004, tsunami that killed almost 250,000 people in eight countries rimming the Indian Ocean.
That disaster, coming the day after Christmas, prompted an unprecendented outpouring of aid from the international community that was welcomed and generally facilitated by the affected nations.
Cyclone Nargis has been a different story.
"In the Boxing Day tsunami 250,000 people lost their lives in the first few hours but we did not see an outbreak of disease because the host governments and the world mobilised a massive aid effort to prevent it happening," said Oxfam's Ireland. "We have to do the same for the people of Myanmar."
Citing evidence from previous experiences in disasters, Oxfam said that without an immediate injection of life-saving aid such as clean water sources, up to 1.5 million people are at risk from a diseases such as cholera, typhoid and shigella.
"We are certain the international humanitarian community can make a difference on the ground and that's why we want to work with the people of Myanmar affected by this terrible disaster," said Ireland.
