Beijing - The growth of Chinese exports may fall this year to about half of the 2007 level, helping to reduce the nation's huge trade surplus, state media on Monday quoted government experts as saying. Export growth is likely to reduce to about 10 per cent, down from nearly 26 per cent last year, the Shanghai Securities News quoted a report by economists under the Ministry of Commerce as saying.
The economists forecast a fall to about 200 billion dollars in China's 2008 trade surplus after a surplus of 262 billion dollars last year, the report said.
The value of China's exports rose 21 per cent year-on-year to 306 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2007, while imports grew by nearly 29 per cent to 264 billion in the same three months.
The first-quarter trade surplus fell by nearly 11 percent year-on-year, the government said.
The official China Daily last week quoted trade official Li Yushi as saying that export growth of textiles and low-technology manufactured goods was likely to continue to fall.
"In the coming years, there will be a trend of export growth in the textile sector declining, as the yuan appreciates and raw material and labour costs increase," Li was quoted as saying.
Many Western critics say that China's suppression of the value of its currency against the dollar has made its its exports cheaper.
China has allowed gradual appreciation of the currency, which has gained more than 10 per cent against the dollar over the last two years.
