ROCHESTER, N.Y. - (Business Wire) As the battle for the Democratic nomination continues, a 64 percent to 30 percent majority of Democrats thinks it more important to elect a president who is a strong agent of change than one who has experience. This finding of a new Harris Poll helps to explain why Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in most recent polls of Democrats.
Among Republicans an even larger 63 percent to 25 percent majority believes the opposite, that experience is more important than change. Independents – whose votes determine the results of most elections – tend to believe that being an agent of change trumps experience, by 51 percent to 37 percent.
These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,513 adults surveyed online between March 11 and 18, 2008 by Harris Interactive®.
Other interesting findings in this poll include:
- White adults are more or less equally split between those who think change (43%) and experience (45%) are more important. African Americans on the other hand overwhelmingly choose change over experience (by 72% to 18%). Hispanics tend to think change is more important, but the margin is more modest (51% to 37%);
- The older people are the more likely they are to believe in the value of experience. Matures (aged 63 and over) favor experience over change by 52 percent to 40 percent. Echo-boomers (aged 18-31) favor change by 54 percent to 35 percent;
- Somewhat more people believe Obama (48%) would bring positive change if elected than believe that Clinton (42%) or McCain (43%) would do this. It is noteworthy that McCain’s numbers are so close to both Clinton’s and Obama’s – an indication that many people do not believe that a McCain presidency would be a continuation of the Bush administration;
- Most people want to see major changes in many areas of policy. The issues where the largest numbers of people would like to see major changes are the economy (74%), health care (71%), immigration (70%), and the war in Iraq (63%);
- In addition smaller majorities favor major changes in education (58%), taxes (57%), employment (54%) and the environment (52%).
So What?
These poll results illuminate the findings of polls that most people think the country is “on the wrong track” (see Harris Poll #18, for example). The fact that majorities want to see major changes in relation to so many issues explains why many people see the need for change as so important.
In the remaining Democratic primaries this desire for change clearly helps Senator Obama. However, in the general election the relative importance of experience and change is likely to be more evenly balanced.
TABLE 1
CHANGE OR EXPERIENCE?
"Now, on a different topic, which of these is more important to you?”
Base: All Adults
| | Total | | Generation | Race/Ethnicity |
| Echo Boomers (18-31) | | Gen. X (32-43) | | Baby Boomers (44-62) | | Matures (63+) | White | | Black | | Hispanic |
| % | | % | | % | | % | | % | % | | % | | % |
| A new president who will be a strong agent of change | 47 | | 54 | | 49 | | 45 | | 40 | 43 | | 72 | | 50 |
| A new president with experience | 42 | | 35 | | 37 | | 43 | | 52 | 45 | | 18 | | 42 |
| Not Sure | 11 | | 11 | | 15 | | 12 | | 8 | 11 | | 11 | | 8 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2
CHANGE OR EXPERIENCE? – BY PARTY
"Now, on a different topic, which of these is more important to you?”
Base: All Adults
| | | Total | | Political Party |
| | Rep. | | Dem. | | Ind. |
| % | | % | | % | | % |
| A new president who will be a strong agent of change | | 47 | | 25 | | 64 | | 51 |
| A new president with experience | | 42 | | 63 | | 30 | | 37 |
| Not sure | | 11 | | 13 | | 6 | | 12 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
WHICH ISSUES REQUIRE MAJOR CHANGES?
"One of the many things candidates for President have talked about during the primary campaign is that they are ‘for change’. Looking at these issues, please indicate which ones you believe require major changes, which ones require minor changes and which ones require no changes at all.”
Base: All Adults
| | | Major Changes | | Minor Changes | | No Changes At All | | Not Sure |
| The economy | | % | | 74 | | 21 | | 2 | | 3 |
| Health Care | | % | | 71 | | 21 | | 5 | | 3 |
| Immigration | | % | | 70 | | 23 | | 2 | | 4 |
| The war in Iraq | | % | | 63 | | 26 | | 8 | | 4 |
| Education | | % | | 58 | | 34 | | 5 | | 3 |
| Taxes | | % | | 57 | | 32 | | 7 | | 4 |
| Employment | | % | | 54 | | 36 | | 8 | | 3 |
| The environment | | % | | 52 | | 34 | | 11 | | 3 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
HOW MUCH POSITIVE CHANGE WOULD THREE CANDIDATES BRING IF ELECTED?
"How much positive change do you feel each of the following candidates for president would bring to the country if he or she was elected?
Base: All Adults
| | | A Great Deal/ Some Change (NET) | | A Great deal Of Positive change | | Some Positive Change | | Little/ No Change (NET) | | A Little Positive Change | | No positive change At All | | Not Sure |
| Barack Obama | | % | | 48 | | 23 | | 25 | | 42 | | 17 | | 25 | | 10 |
| John McCain | | % | | 43 | | 10 | | 32 | | 47 | | 25 | | 22 | | 10 |
| Hillary Clinton | | % | | 42 | | 19 | | 24 | | 49 | | 18 | | 31 | | 9 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
Methodology
This Harris Poll® was conducted online within the United States between March 11 and 18, 2008, among 2,513 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research. With a long and rich history in multimodal research, powered by our science and technology, we assist clients in achieving business results. Harris Interactive serves clients globally through our North American, European and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms.
Harris Interactive Inc. 4/08
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