Johannesburg/Harare - Will the Movement for Democratic Change's (MDC) plucky preemptive claim of victory over President Robert Mugabe in Saturday's elections propel longtime opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai to power at last or merely plunge the beleaguered southern African country into more bloodshed?Haunted by the experience of the last presidential election in 2002, in which Mugabe snatched victory from Tsvangirai by 400,000 votes after widespread voter intimidation and some outright cheating, the MDC vowed "never again."
Never again would party leaders be left wringing their hands in despair over a stolen election while Zimbabwe's African neigbours tut-tutted over "irregularities" but eventually gave the vote a clean bill of health.
"We are not going to make that mistake again," MDC secretary general Tendai Biti said emphatically on Monday.
This time, at great personal risk to its leaders, the MDC went on the offensive rather than the defensive, moving quickly to claim victory in the combined presidential, parliamentary and local elections just a few hours after the close of the polls.
No-one knows better the risks of such a move than Tsvangirai, who was nearly beaten to a pulp by police last year after partaking in a peaceful protest. The MDC leader also knows that, for the millions of Zimbabweans who have been taken to brink of famine by Mugabe's populist policies, it's now or never.
The MDC's victory claim filled the vacuum left by the Zimbabwe's Electoral Commission's (ZEC) more than day-long silence after the vote.
"It's quite astute on their part," Chris Maroleng, a Zimbabwe expert at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, said.
"By calling the election it (the MDC) puts the onus on Zanu-PF and the ZEC to prove the election was free and fair," rather than on the MDC to prove it was not, he said.
This time around, says the MDC, it also has proof to back up its claims after taking thousands of photographs of the provisional results posted outside polling station, lest they change on arrival at the national voting centre.
But it's a high-risk strategy. "This country stands on a precipice," Biti acknowledged, as riot police fanned out across Harare and the government declared the MDC's victory claim tantamount to a coup attempt.
"They mustn't go too far," Maroleng said, warning the MDC risked giving Mugabe an excuse to declare a state of emergency and reseal the sliver of democratic space afforded the opposition in the run-up to the elections, which the MDC used to ignite hope for change among the dispirited populace.
Tsvangirai has called on MDC supporters to take to the streets to safeguard the "people's victory" in the event of any attempt by the state at rigging.
Mugabe has warned he will not tolerate what he calls "Kenya-style" protests after the conflict which rocked the east African country in the wake of disputed December elections.
Analysts have ruled out a Kenya-style scenario, pointing to Zimbabweans' famously placid nature and the subjugation of the population through eight years of repression and hardship.
But, as the owner of a guesthouse in Zimbabwe's tourist resort of Victoria Falls, warned recently:, "It's like a vicious dog standing between you and a plate of food. If you get hungry enough, eventually you'll lose your fear of that dog. We are at that point now in Zimbabwe."
The MDC is banking on that frustration by creating an expectation of change which, if not realized, could transform into a showdown between the security forces and opposition supporters.
Whether scenes of the state brutalizing its civilians would be enough to spur intervention by Zimbabwe's African neighbours and, eventually, Mugabe's ouster, as the MDC apparently hopes, is a moot point.
Two groups of African observers, one from the 14-nation Southern African Development Community and another from the Pan-African Parliament, have already given the elections a qualified thumbs-up.
