Analysis: California's low-carb fuel move

Posted : Fri, 12 Jan 2007 03:11:01 GMT
By : Energy Analysis Editor
Category : Environment
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By CHRIS KILLIAN In an unprecedented move that California state officials hope will set an example on how the U.S. -- and even the world -- can reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the state announced it would reduce carbon emissions by 10 percent by 2020 by targeting polluting transportation fuels.

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard was unveiled Tuesday by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and seeks an aggressive, comprehensive approach to significantly reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in a state that is the world's 12th largest producer of the emissions -- a significant cause of global warming.

It also creates the world's first global warming standard for transportation fuels.

Actual implementation of the plan won't begin until 2010, after a long process where state environmental and energy commissions assess what are the best alternative forms of energy to meet the goals outlined in the LCFS.

Several alternative fuel policy agencies were contacted by UPI seeking comment on how the LCFS plan might spur -- or be the model for -- some kind of national policy on reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Officials said they needed more time to go over the plan before commenting on the idea.

Forty-one percent of greenhouse gas pollution in California comes from emissions from transportation vehicles, with Californians spending $30 billion per year on fossil fuels.

Currently, the California Energy Commission is looking at 10 different fuels that could be utilized to lower carbon dioxide emissions, from propane to biodiesel to compressed natural gas. Also on the table are possible investments in hybrid and electric vehicle technologies.

But the primary -- and most readily available -- alternative fuel is ethanol.

The mechanics of how this is going to work are going to be determined between now and 2010, said Jackie Pfannenstiel, chairwoman of the California Energy Commission. Right now, we are at the very beginning stages of a very exciting project.By the 2010 deadline, oil refineries and gasoline suppliers will be mandated by the state to have a plan in place in which they mix their gasoline with an alternative fuel that achieves the 10 percent reduction.

Currently, 6 percent of all gasoline in the state is mixed with ethanol.

A total of 13 million tons of carbon dioxide will be reduced by 2020, the proposal states.

Economists from the Universities of California at Davis and Berkeley are currently conducting a preliminary study of the plan's economic impact on the state. Findings will be released in the coming months.

Joseph Farrell, an economist at Berkeley, said the LCFS plan is likely to spur greater private capital expenditure in the state, as entrepreneurs seek to cash in on the economic promise of the plan, researching technologies and designing and building the infrastructure necessary to deliver alternative fuels.

The key is diversification of the alternative fuels that are offered, Farrell said. That would ensure that the market is less vulnerable to price spikes (in gasoline).Although Farrell said it is too early to discuss the initial costs of the plan, he did say that very little public money would be needed to get the plan up and running. In the 20th Century, there was a race for the development of gasoline, he said. "The race to develop alternative fuels is seen as the race of the 21st Century. The announcement of the LCFS plan was a starting gun, Farrell said. And there are plenty of engineers, investors and scientists that want to be part of the winning team.The LCFS plan is a major component to the state's Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, known as AB 32, which seeks to lower global warming emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, to 1990 levels by 2020 and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

The University of California estimates that the state's emissions goals can increase the Gross State Product by about $60 billion and create over 20,000 new jobs.

As a result of AB 32 and other initiatives -- including the Million Solar Roofs and Hydrogen Highway projects, the Bioenergy Action Plan and the Strategic Innovation and Research Initiative -- California continues to lead the way in clean technology research, investment and development.

The state attracted $484 million in venture capital in 2005 - 40 percent to new companies in energy generation and efficiency sectors.

Bill Bush, of the American Petroleum Institute, said API is still digesting the plan. At the Tuesday press conference where the LCFS plan was announced, no representatives from the oil industry were present, according to The Los Angeles Times.

(Comments to energy@upi.com)



KALAMAZOO, Mich., Jan. 11

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