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ANALYSIS: Giuliani takes first, last stand in Florida

Posted : Wed, 30 Jan 2008 06:02:04 GMT
By : DPA
Category : US (World)
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Washington - In the end, it was a stunning fall for a one- time Republican frontrunner who staked his entire presidential campaign on winning the Florida primary. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani managed only 15 per cent in Tuesday's contest, well behind winner John McCain, who was in line to receive Giuliani's public endorsement Wednesday.

Giuliani will be leaving the race without his campaign ever really getting off the ground. His now-discredited strategy of ignoring early states like Iowa and New Hampshire will be analysed by academics and campaign managers for years to come.

The United States' quirky, drawn-out process of state-by-state electoral contests leading to the major-party nominations has a history of rejuvenating failing campaigns and thrusting little known contenders into the spotlight. It gives those lacking the money to run a national campaign a chance to barnstorm in a smaller, more manageable environment, at least for a while.

Former Arizona governor Mike Huckabee was an outsider with no money and little chance of winning the Republican nomination - until he won the first electoral contest on January 3 in the Midwestern, strongly rural state of Iowa.

Iowa has a population of 3 million people. Candidates spend months shaking hands, holding small meetings and speaking personally to voters in a way that would be impossible to do in a national campaign.

Five days later came New Hampshire, an even less populous north- eastern state where Arizona Senator McCain's struggling campaign leapt up from life-support.

McCain had been considered the likely nominee one year ago, but was running out of money and momentum already in mid-2007. His campaign was reignited by the New Hampshire victory, and a surprising win in South Carolina returned him to the top tier of contenders. Tuesday night's success in Florida catapulted McCain back into the frontrunner position for the Republican nomination.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney also suffered from a lack of name recognition despite deep campaign coffers. But he made his stand by winning Michigan earlier this month and has since been battling it out with McCain for the nomination.

Giuliani - dubbed America's Mayor for leading New York's response to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks - struggled to gain traction in the early contests.

Instead, he chose to invest most of his time and money in Florida, but he ignored the momentum created by early primary contests at his own risk. South Carolina, which Giuliani also ceded and McCain won earlier this month, has picked the eventual nominee in every election since 1980.

Giuliani won less than 10 per cent of the vote in all primary contests before the Sunshine State. His one-time lead in Florida began to evaporate as public attention and media coverage focussed on the early contest winners.

In many ways, the former prosecutor was never the ideal candidate for the Republican party. Twice-divorced, Giuliani has long riled social conservatives for his unapologetic belief in rights for homosexual couples and for women to choose an abortion.

James Dobson, the influential head of conservative Christian interest group Focus on the Family, had even suggested that right- wing voters should throw their support behind a third-party candidate if Giuliani got the nod.

Yet Giuliani continued to lead national polls until well into December, leaving the conservative movement fractured and fearful that he could gain the nomination.

Giuliani alluded to that fact Tuesday night, telling supporters that the Republican Party was such a large tent that "I'm even in this party."

Now, his Florida stand in tatters, he is set to endorse McCain, a long-time friend who is the other likely reason for Giuliani's own loss of momentum.

Both have campaigned heavily on the issue of national security, Giuliani as the leader of New York in a time of crisis and McCain as a Vietnam War POW and vocal proponent of the Iraq war. Both are also regarded as moderates within their own party, though McCain's more conservative stance on social issues may have been the reason he could garner a wider band of supporters than Giuliani.

In fact, the two are so close that Giuliani already declared last year that McCain would be his preferred choice for president, if he hadn't been running himself.

But there is one major difference between the two - McCain won New Hampshire.

Copyright DPA

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