Washington - General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, strengthened President George W Bush's hand by arguing that the surge of US soldiers in Iraq has worked and troop levels could be substantially reduced within a year. Petraeus' intention to pull 30,000 US soldiers out of Iraq by July allows Bush to tell war-weary Americans that there is a plan for a partial withdrawal instead of bowing to his Democratic opponents and accepting deadlines.
Bush is expected to give a major address this week to discuss the update by Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, during testimony to the House of Representatives on Monday.
Petraeus cited the successes of the troop surge, ordered by Bush in January, to quell sectarian violence and improve security in Iraq, especially in Baghdad. Petraeus said the troop increase helped weaken al-Qaeda's operation in Iraq and cut the number of sectarian killings in half.
The limited progress, coupled with a withdrawal plan, will likely buy Bush more time to stabilise Iraq - the cornerstone of his legacy as he nears the end of his eight years in office.
"Bush has basically made a decision that this thing is not going to implode on his watch," said John Pike, a foreign policy analyst at globalsecurity.org.
During the hearing, Petraeus and Crocker emphasized that their assessment represented their independent judgement and was not influenced by the White House. Their testimony was not cleared by the White House or State Department.
Petraeus warned Congress that any "premature" withdrawals of US soldiers would be "devastating" and undermine the achievements during the last several months.
Polls show that Petraeus enjoys high approval ratings among the US public, lending weight to his endorsement of keeping US troop levels at more than 160,000 for the next few months.
"This works really to the White House's advantage because Petraeus - who does have at least some measures of public confidence - is endorsing a continuing large troop presence," said Steven Simon of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
The Democrats aren't buying the line. Representative Tom Lantos, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called Petraeus' plan a "token withdrawal," while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the reductions were not enough.
"The longer we keep over 130,000 troops in Iraq, the less incentive Iraqis have to engage in the needed political reconciliation and the longer we avoid dealing with several pressing threats to our national security," Reid said.
Petraeus and Crocker confronted some of the previous, more negative reports about the progress in Iraq. Petraeus said Iraqi forces were increasingly providing for the country's security and cited dramatic progress in Anbar province, where local Sunni leaders have allied with US forces in combatting al-Qaeda.
Crocker challenged a congressional report published last week that said the Iraqi government was failed to pass key legislation to address political reconciliation and sharing oil revenue among Iraq ethnic and religious groups.
Crocker told lawmakers that the Shiite-controlled Iraqi government has taken steps to reconcile differences with their Sunni rivals, in part by reaching out to Sunni soldiers expelled from the military during the US administration of Iraq after the March 2003 invasion.
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government is sharing oil revenue among Iraq's rival groups even without a law, he said.
"This process will not be quick," Crocker said. "It will be uneven and punctuated by setbacks, as well as achievements, and it will require substantial US resolve and commitment."
James Dobbins, a former US assistant secretary of state in the Bush administration, said the troop buildup is unlikely to stabilise Iraq without political progress and a stronger diplomatic effort.
"I think they are employing the right tactics. But I think the best they are going to be able to do is hold the line," he said of US military efforts.
The United States should step up dialogue with countries in the region to support the Iraqi government, especially Iran, which has been accused of providing support for militants in Iraq responsible for attacks on US troops, he said.
"Iraq isn't going to be stabilized except in the context of a regional arrangement which brings all of its neighbours into a common project," said Dobbins, who was the US negotiator in 2001 talks to set up a post-Taliban government in Afghanistan.
