LONDON: While the catastrophic outcome of global warming and climate change are well known and deliberated the world over, a detailed attempt to measure its impact in terms of resources has been made for the first time by the former World Bank economist Nicholas Stern, in his 700-page report to the British government Monday. The wildfires, rising oceans, hurricanes and melting glaciers apart, Stern says global warming will eventually cost countries from 5 per cent to 20 per cent of their gross domestic product.
He implores world governments to initiate strong action immediately saying there could be unprecedented flooding, famine and drought and resulting crop failures, drinking water shortage and increased incidence of certain diseases that can result in a worst-ever depression. He also portends a chaotic situation resulting from people in the affected countries migrating to lesser affected regions.
What is required now to arrest the slide and avoid much of the catastrophe, says Stern, is just 1 per cent of the GDP of the nations, which needs to be invested in programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
While some environmental experts contest the argument, the message cannot be ignored. The damage that will be caused if emissions are not significantly reduced will be irreversible in the long term.
Stern has warned that the effects of warming could create an equivalent of the depression of the 1920s.
The report talks about the results of the unplanned experiment that humankind is conducting with its habitat -- droughts, floods, famines, killer storms and worst of all higher prevalence of diseases. Developing countries will be the worst hit, but no region can escape, he warns.
He says while the climate change left unchecked could reduce the global economic activity by 20 per cent, changes that can be brought about in transportation, power production and other energy uses that are needed to avoid this disaster will reduce global economic growth by just 1 per cent only a year. Stern feels that if nothing is done there could be a great loss of jobs.
This pricks a big hole in the argument of President George Bush who has rejected any tax or cap on the principal greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, contending it will lead to unemployment and deceleration in the economy's growth.
It has been estimated the emissions in the U.S. has gone up almost 16 per cent since 1990 and is on the rise every year. Britain has reduced emissions during that time by 14 per cent and Germany by 17 per cent.
