DUBLIN - (Business Wire) Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/db7b3c/1q10_turkey_mobile) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q10 Turkey Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Turkey will have 74.7 million mobile subscribers in 2014 with Turkcell taking market share of 52.6%" to their offering.
Mobile Operator Forecast on Turkey provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Turkish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Turkey include: Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell), Vodafone Group Plc, and Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom)). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
So what is IEMRs Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Turkey to increase to 74.7 million in 2014
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Turkey will increase from 68.1 million in 2009 to 74.7 million in 2014.
- Turkcell will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 39.3 million mobile subscribers in 2014.
- On the other hand, given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that Vodafone will have 18.4 million and Avea (Turk Telekom) will have 17.0 million wireless subscriber accounts in 2014.
Avea (Turk Telekom) will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
- We expect that Avea's market share will increase from 19.6% to 22.8% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.
- On the other hand, our forecasting model now predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline from 25.5% in 2009 to 24.6% in 2014, and Turkcell's market share will decline from 54.9% in 2009 to 52.6% in 2014.
ARPU levels in Turkey will be stabilizing from 2010 to 2014
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will remain in the range of TRY 16 - TRY 17 over the next five years.
- At the operator level, we forecast that Turkcell will continue to receive the highest ARPU in the country at TRY 18.35 per month in 2014.
- We expect that monthly ARPUs at Vodafone and Avea will be approximately TRY 11.63 and TRY 15.68 respectively in 2014.
Turkcell's EBITDA margins will remain much higher than those of Avea over the next several years
- We forecast that Turkcell's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain at approximately 33% from 2010 to 2014.
- Although we expect that Avea's EBITDA margin will be improving over the next several years, it will still be approximately 12% in 2014, according to our model.
Companies Mentioned:
- Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell)
- Vodafone Group Plc
- Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom))
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/db7b3c/1q10_turkey_mobile
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