Bangkok - Bangkok's notorious traffic is likely to get worse this weekend. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), better-known as the red shirts for the colour its supporters wear, has vowed to bring 500,000 to 1 million anti-government protestors from Thailand's 76 provinces into the already congested capital from Friday to Sunday for what it claimed would be the country's biggest-ever demonstration.
The weekend influx, which would require tens of thousands of vehicles, has sparked speculation of pending coups, violent street clashes and the dramatic downfall of the current government, but at this point, only one thing seems certain.
"Bangkok traffic will be paralysed," bragged Jaran Ditthapichai, a core leader of the UDD.
The UDD's professed goal is to force the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to resign and call for a general election.
Their critics claimed the movement's real aim is to spark a violent confrontation between the government and the protestors that would lead to chaos and the triumphant return of ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thailand's Supreme Court for Political Office Holders two weeks ago ordered the seizure of 1.4 billion dollars of some 2.3 billion dollars in frozen
bank assets belonging to Thaksin and his family after finding him guilty of abusing his power to benefit his business empire and of holding a larger-than-allowed share in Thaksin-founded Shin Corp while he was prime minister from 2001 to 2006.
The former telecommunications tycoon, who also faces a two-year prison sentence in Thailand for abuse of power, has posted messages from
Dubai on the micro-blogging website Twitter, urging his supporters to join the weekend protests to fight for democracy and equality and if they think he has been unfairly treated by the courts.
It is widely understood that Thaksin, despite his diminished fortune, remains the chief financier of the UDD, which needs an estimated 30 million baht (909,000 dollars) per 100,000 protestors to feed and transport them.
"After the assets verdict, Thaksin's gloves are off," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Thai political scientist who is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University in California. "His crusade is completely personal now."
The Thai government is taking the challenge seriously.
On Thursday, the Internal Security Act was imposed in Bangkok and parts of the seven surrounding provinces to allow authorities more leeway in cracking down on any signs of violence during the demonstrations.
Under the act, authorities may prohibit demonstrations in sensitive areas and jail perpetrators of violence for up to year.
A 35,000-strong joint police and army force is to be on hand in Bangkok this weekend to keep the peace with another 46,000 civilian volunteers available to help if things get hectic.
Hospitals have been put on alert and information centres set up in the city for potentially befuddled foreign tourists.
About 30 countries have issued travel warnings to their citizens advising them to avoid trouble spots in Bangkok.
"We do not intend to allow the situation to develop into an emergency," said Panitan Wattanagagorn, acting government spokesman.
"If there is violence, all the people will lose the confidence of the international community and all Thai people will lose confidence in democratic principles," he asserted.
Thailand has seen its fair share of prolonged street protests and violent clashes over the past four years.
Mass protests in Bangkok led to the eventual downfall of Thaksin, who was toppled by a coup in September 2006.
In 2008, Bangkok saw seven months of non-stop street protests by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the so-called yellow shirts, against an elected government that was openly pro-Thaksin.
In April last year, red shirts stormed an Asian summit in Pattaya, a Thai beach resort, forcing Abhisit, a Democrat, to cancel the event and thereafter they went on to rampage in Bangkok, prompting an army crackdown in which two people died.
The red shirts are clearly hoping that this weekend's protest would force the government to crack down again or throw in the towel.
"If Abhisit chooses to suppress us, no one knows what will happen, perhaps civil war," the UDD's Jaran warned.
With a showdown widely expected, much depends on how the government and security personnel deal with the confrontation in the coming days.
"The Abhisit government would have to make missteps and lose legitimacy, and there would have to be a royal intervention," Thitinan said.
"Absent these conditions and with the pro-Abhisit coalition of army, palace insiders, PAD, Democrats, coalition partners and Bangkok's pro-yellow civil society segment still intact, the red shirts will be hard-pressed to meet their objectives," he predicted.
